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As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's...

As a founder and managing director of Global Business Network, James Ogilvy helped develop the technique of scenario planning, which has become an integral part of strategic thinking in both business and government. Now Ogilvy shows how we can use this cutting-edge method for social change in our own neighborhoods. In Creating Better Futures, Ogilvy presents a profound new vision of how the world is changing--and how it can be changed for the better. Ogilvy argues that self-defined communities, rather than individuals or governments, have become the primary agents for social change. Towns,...

How do we face the uncertainty and complexity of the future? An overly optimistic perspective can be motivating but easily dismissed as naive or shallow; the pessimistic outlook may be considered to be deeper and more knowing but could lead to inaction. But limiting our visions of the future to simply one of these two branches would mean adopting a position that is ultimately no more than a fatalistic rut. Facing The Fold is a collection of highly regarded journal essays about how scenario thinking uses the capacious space of the fold to encourage thinking around alternative scenarios to...

This early work by Arthur James Ogilvy was originally published in 1913 and we are now republishing it as part of our Cryptofiction Classics series. 'The Ape Man' is a short story about a prospector in Amazonia who discovers the last family of some quasi-human apes. The Cryptofiction Classics series contains a collection of wonderful stories from some of the greatest authors in the genre, including Ambrose Bierce, Arthur Conan Doyle, Robert Louis Stevenson, and Jack London. From its roots in cryptozoology, this genre features bizarre, fantastical, and often terrifying tales of mythical and...