Analyzing Relation Between Inflation and Macroeconomic Variables

ISBN-13: 9786208447960 / Angielski / Miękka / 2025 / 96 str.

Assoss. Prof. Dr. Amjed Hameed Majeed; Dr. Ahmed Hasan Shakir

Opis

Inflation has been distorting the progress of the Iraqi economy; moreover, it has contributed to prolonged economic instability. This study examines the relationships between inflation and key macroeconomic variables. It is primarily based on data from the Central Bank of Iraq's annual bulletin for variables such as GDP, M1, and interest rate (IR). Additionally, workforce (WF) data was extracted from UNCTAD statistical sources.An ARDL co-integration approach was used to investigate correlations, co-integration, and long-run relationships among the variables. The findings reflect the existence of co-integration and correlation, as well as the nature of these relationships. The results indicate a co-integration and long-run relationship between GDP and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), along with a significant correlation. Similarly, a strong co-integration and long-run relationship was found between CPI and M1. A positive correlation was also observed between WF and CPI, suggesting that the increase in CPI may be attributed to an increase in workforce size. However, no co-integration or long-run relationship was found between IR and CPI.