Thomas Moser is a staff economist at the central bank of Switzerland, and a lecturer of economics at the University of Zurich, Switzerland. Bernd Schips is a Professor of Economics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich, Switzerland, and Director of the Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) at the ETH. He is a member of the advisory board of IFO-Institute, Munich, Germany, and of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) at the University of Mannheim, Germany.