Value-Added Decision Making for Managers

ISBN-13: 9781420075724 / Angielski / Twarda / 2011 / 578 str.

Kenneth Chelst;Yavuz Burak Canbolat

Opis

Managers, especially those in a technical environment, regularly face complex decision involving uncertainty and multiple objectives. This book presents approaches and mathematical models designed to structure the decision making process. With numerous real-world examples from a variety of industries, it highlights symptoms of a poor decision process; presents an influence diagram that clarifies key objectives and uncertainties; and demonstrates the role of structured decision making in common day-to-day decisions using templates, illustrations, and comprehensive lists. A CD is included with software for decision trees and multi-objective decisions as well as PowerPoint slides.

Recenzje

"[The authors] introduce all concepts and methods using realistic decision-making examples to make them relevant to practitioners. This style also makes the description of the processes easy to comprehend and apply. … I was impressed with the presentation and development of the materials. Because it avoids purely technical topics, this book is easy to read and would make an excellent textbook for a practical course on decision making with multiple objectives and under uncertainty."
—Matthias Ehrgott, The University of Auckland, Interfaces, July–August 2013

Spis treści

STRUCTURING HARD DECISIONS: The Case for a Structured Analytic Decision Process. Framing Decisions with Influence Diagrams. Common Decision Templates. DECISIONS WITH MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES: Structure Decisions with Multiple Objectives. Structured Trade-Offs for Multiple Objective Decisions: Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. Value and Risk Management for Multi-Objective Decisions. Multiple Objective Decisions with Limited Data: Analytical Hierarchy Process. DECISIONS AND MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY: Value-Added Risk-Management Framework and Strategies. Spreadsheet Simulation for Decisions with Uncertainty. Decisions with Uncertainty: Decision Trees. Structured Risk Management and the Value of Information and Delay. Risk Attitude and Utility Theory. CHALLENGES TO "RATIONAL" DECISIONS: Forecast Bias and Expert Interviews. Decision Bias. DECISIONS WITH MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVES: Value-Added Negotiations. Ethical Decisions. Strategic Direction, Planning, and Decision Making. Appendices. Index.