Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis

ISBN-13: 9780521365420 / Angielski / Twarda / 1990 / 348 str.

M. Granger Morgan; Max Henrion; Max Obnrion

Opis

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.

Recenzje

'Uncertainty is a risk analysis textbook … written to serve as a basic text for students as well as a reference work for practitioners and researchers (it) succeeds both in providing an excellent basis for policy analysis and in drawing upon a variety of case studies that will be of interest to risk researchers.' Journal of Economic Literature

Spis treści

Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.