Trade-Off Analytics: Creating and Exploring the System Tradespace

ISBN-13: 9781119237532 / Angielski / Twarda / 2016 / 640 str.

Gregory S. Parnell PhD

Opis

Presents information to create a trade-off analysis framework for use in government and commercial acquisition environments This book presents a decision management process based on decision theory and cost analysis best practices aligned with the ISO/IEC 15288, the Systems Engineering Handbook, and the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge. It provides a sound trade-off analysis framework to generate the tradespace and evaluate value and risk to support system decision-making throughout the life cycle. Trade-off analysis and risk analysis techniques are examined. The authors present an integrated value trade-off and risk analysis framework based on decision theory. These trade-off analysis concepts are illustrated in the different life cycle stages using multiple examples from defense and commercial domains.

• Provides techniques to identify and structure stakeholder objectives and creative, doable alternatives
• Presents the advantages and disadvantages of tradespace creation and exploration techniques for trade-off analysis of concepts, architectures, design, operations, and retirement
• Covers the sources of uncertainty in the system life cycle and examines how to identify, assess, and model uncertainty using probability
• Illustrates how to perform a trade-off analysis using the INCOSE Decision Management Process using both deterministic and probabilistic techniques

Trade-off Analytics: Creating and Exploring the System Tradespace is written for upper undergraduate students and graduate students studying systems design, systems engineering, industrial engineering and engineering management. This book also serves as a resource for practicing systems designers, systems engineers, project managers, and engineering managers.
Gregory S. Parnell, PhD, is a Research Professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Arkansas. He is also a senior principal with Innovative Decisions, Inc., a decision and risk analysis firm and has served as Chairman of the Board. Dr. Parnell has published more than 100 papers and book chapters and was lead editor of Decision Making for Systems Engineering and Management, Wiley Series in Systems Engineering (2nd Ed, Wiley 2011) and lead author of the Handbook of Decision Analysis (Wiley 2013). He is a fellow of INFORMS, the INCOSE, MORS, and the Society for Decision Professionals.

Spis treści

List of Contributors xix

About the Authors xxi

Foreword xxxi

Preface xxxiii

Acknowledgments xli

About the Companion Website xlv

1 Introduction to Trade–off Analysis 1
Gregory S. Parnell Matthew Cilli Azad M. Madni and Garry Roedler

1.1 Introduction 2

1.2 Trade–off Analyses Throughout the Life Cycle 3

1.3 Trade–off Analysis to Identify System Value 3

1.4 Trade–off Analysis to Identify System Uncertainties and Risks 6

1.5 Trade–off Analyses can Integrate Value and Risk Analysis 6

1.6 Trade–off Analysis in the Systems Engineering Decision Management Process 8

1.7 Trade–off Analysis Mistakes of Omission and Commission 9

1.8 Overview of the Book 20

1.9 Key Terms 24

1.10 Exercises 25

References 26

2 A Conceptual Framework and Mathematical Foundation for Trade–Off Analysis 29
Gregory S. Parnell Azad M. Madni and Robert F. Bordley

2.1 Introduction 29

2.2 Trade–Off Analysis Terms 30

2.3 Influence Diagram of the Tradespace 31

2.4 Tradespace Exploration 46

2.5 Summary 46

2.6 Key Words 47

2.7 Exercises 48

References 48

3 Quantifying Uncertainty 51
Robert F. Bordley

3.1 Sources of Uncertainty in Systems Engineering 51

3.2 The Rules of Probability and Human Intuition 52

3.3 Probability Distributions 56

3.4 Estimating Probabilities 66

3.5 Modeling Using Probability 72

3.6 Summary 81

3.7 Key Terms 81

3.8 Exercises 83

References 86

4 ANALYZING RESOURCES 91
Edward A. Pohl Simon R. Goerger and Kirk Michealson

4.1 Introduction 91

4.2 Resources 92

4.3 Cost Analysis 99

4.4 Affordability Analysis 135

4.5 Key Terms 147

4.6 Excercises 149

References 152

5 Understanding Decision Management 155
Matthew Cilli and Gregory S. Parnell

5.1 Introduction 155

5.2 Decision Process Context 156

5.3 Decision Process Activities 157

5.4 Summary 199

5.5 Key Terms 199

5.6 Exercises 200

References 201

6 Identifying Opportunities 203
Donna H. Rhodes and Simon R. Goerger

6.1 Introduction 203

6.2 Knowledge 205

6.3 Decision Traps 207

6.4 Techniques 210

6.5 Tools 219

6.6 Illustrative Examples 223

6.7 Key Terms 228

6.8 Exercises 230

References 230

7 Identifying Objectives and Value Measures 233
Gregory S. Parnell and William D. Miller

7.1 Introduction 233

7.2 Value–Focused Thinking 234

7.3 Shareholder and Stakeholder Value 236

7.4 Challenges in Identifying Objectives 238

7.5 Identifying the Decision Objectives 239

7.6 The Financial or Cost Objective 241

7.7 Developing Value Measures 243

7.8 Structuring Multiple Objectives 243

7.9 Illustrative Examples 248

7.10 Summary 250

7.11 Key Terms 252

7.12 Exercises 253

References 255

8 DEVELOPING AND EVALUATING ALTERNATIVES 257
C. Robert Kenley Clifford Whitcomb and Gregory S. Parnell

8.1 Introduction 257

8.2 Overview of Decision–making Creativity and Teams 258

8.3 Alternative Development Techniques 263

8.4 Assessment of Alternative Development Techniques 275

8.5 Alternative Evaluation Techniques 276

8.6 Assessment of Alternative Evaluation Techniques 290

8.7 Key Terms 290

8.8 Exercises 290

References 293

9 An Integrated Model for Trade–Off Analysis 297
Alexander D. MacCalman Gregory S. Parnell and Sam Savage

9.1 Introduction 297

9.2 Conceptual Design Example 298

9.3 Integrated Approach Influence Diagram 300

9.4 Other Types of Trade–Off Analysis 322

9.5 Simulation Tools 322

9.6 Summary 329

9.7 Key Terms 330

9.8 Exercises 331

References 335

10 EXPLORING CONCEPT TRADE–OFFS 337
Azad M. Madni and Adam M. Ross

10.1 Introduction 337

10.2 Defining the Concept Space and System Concept of Operations 345

10.3 Exploring the Concept Space 346

10.4 Trade–off Analysis Frameworks 348

10.5 Tradespace and System Design Life Cycle 349

10.6 From Point Trade–offs to Tradespace Exploration 351

10.7 Value–based Multiattribute Tradespace Analysis 351

10.8 Illustrative Example 359

10.9 Conclusions 369

10.10 Key Terms 371

10.11 Exercises 372

References 372

11 Architecture Evaluation Framework 377
James N. Martin

11.1 Introduction 377

11.2 Key Considerations in Evaluating Architectures 385

11.3 Architecture Evaluation Elements 389

11.4 Steps in an Architecture Evaluation Process 396

11.5 Example Evaluation Taxonomy 398

11.6 Summary 400

11.7 Key Terms 400

11.8 Exercises 402

References 402

12 Exploring the Design Space 405
Clifford Whitcomb and Paul Beery

12.1 Introduction 405

12.2 Example 1: Liftboat 406

12.3 Example 2: Cruise Ship Design 411

12.4 Example 3: NATO Naval Surface Combatant Ship 417

12.5 Key Terms 431

12.6 Exercises 433

References 435

13 SUSTAINMENT RELATED MODELS AND TRADE STUDIES 437
John E. MacCarthy and Andres Vargas

13.1 Introduction 437

13.2 Availability Modeling and Trade Studies 439

13.3 Sustainment Life Cycle Cost Modeling and Trade Studies14 454

13.4 Optimization in Availability Trade Studies 464

13.5 Monte Carlo Modeling 471

13.6 Chapter Summary 475

13.7 Key Terms 476

13.8 Exercises 478

References 482

14 Performing Programmatic Trade–Off Analyses 483
Gina Guillaume–Joseph and John E. MacCarthy

14.1 Introduction 483

14.2 System Acceptance Decisions and Trade Studies 485

14.3 Product Cancelation Decision Trade Study 512

14.4 Product Retirement Decision Trade Study 538

14.5 Key Terms 562

14.6 Exercises 564

References 566

15 SUMMARY AND FUTURE TRENDS 571
Gregory S. Parnell and Simon R. Goerger

15.1 Introduction 571

15.2 Major Trade–Off Analysis Themes 572

15.3 Future of Trade–Off Analysis 576

15.4 Summary 581

References 581

Index 583