The Science of Disasters: Climate Disruptions, Heart Attacks, and Market Crashes

ISBN-13: 9783540413240 / Angielski / Twarda / 2002 / 453 str.

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Jurgen Kropp; Armin Bunde

Opis

Are there universal laws governing the persistence of weather, and is it possible to predict climate transitions as generated by natural or man-made perturbations? How can one quantify the roller-coaster dynamics of stock markets and anticipate mega-crashes? Can we diagnose the health condition of patients from heartbeat time-series analysis, which may even form the basis for infarct prevention? This book tackles these questions by applying advanced methods from statistical physics and related fields to all types of non-linear dynamics prone to disaster. The transdisciplinary analysis is organized in some dozen review articles written by world-class scientists.

Recenzje

From the reviews:

"This impressive collection is a result of an international conference on 'Facets of Universality in Complex Systems', which was held in June 1999 at the University of Giessen, Germany. ... What is found in and through this book are ... 14 sophisticated examples of advanced modelling of non-linear processes, systems and systemic interdependencies. ... My personal recommendation: A stimulating book ... ." (Wolf Dombrowsky, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Vol. 12 (4), 2006)

"The book considers the non-linear dynamics of complex systems, with examples drawn from climatology, biodynamics and economics. ... I would like to congratulate the editors and the publisher. Publishing a book covering state-of-the-art analysis in three disciplines cannot be easy. This is a beautifully presented work ... . The diagrams are of a consistently high standard with liberal use of colour, and always enhance the discussion. ... In short, this is a very good book, bursting with ideas ... ." (Tom Holt, The Holocene, Vol. 14 (2), 2004)

"This monograph grew from a 1999 Giessen workshop entitled 'Facets of Universality in Climate, Biodynamics and Stock Markets'. It is interdisciplinary by intent. ... The book delivers an invitation to explore new tools and an introduction to the application fields mentioned above which I found stimulating, with its breadth of coverage and wealth of references." (Greg Doherty, The Physicist, Vol. 41 (1), 2003)

Spis treści

I. General.- 1. Entropy, Complexity, Predictability, and Data Analysis of Time Series and Letter Sequences.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Conditional Entropies and Predictabihty.- 1.3 Concepts of Complexity.- 1.4 Applications to Biosequences and Other Information Carriers.- 1.5 Applications of Entropy Concepts to Data Analysis.- 1.6 Applications of Complexity Concepts.- 1.7 Conclusion.- References.- 2. Wavelet Based Multifractal Formalism: Applications to DNA Sequences, Satellite Images of the Cloud Structure, and Stock Market Data.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 The Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima Method for the Multifractal Analysis of ID signals.- 2.3 Wavelet Based Fractal Analysis of DNA Sequences.- 2.4 The 2D Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima Method for the Multifractal Analysis of Rough Surfaces.- 2.5 Application of the 2D WTMM Method to High-Resolution Satellite Images of Cloud Structure.- 2.6 Beyond Multifractal Analysis with Wavelet-Based Space-Scale Correlation Functions: Revealing a Causal Information Cascade in Stock Market Data.- 2.7 Conclusion.- References.- II. Climate Systems.- 3. Space-Time Variability of the European Climate.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Time and Space Scales: Peaks, Gaps, and Scaling.- 3.3 Europe’s Climate: Storm Tracks, Gross Wetterlagen, and Climate Zones.- 3.4 Climate Trends: Europe at the End of the Twentieth Century.- 3.5 Conclusion.- References.- 4. Is Climate Predictable?.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Weather and Climate.- 4.3 Climate Prediction of the First Kind: ENSO.- 4.4 Stochastic Climate Models.- 4.5 Climate Predictions of the Second Kind: Global Warming.- 4.6 Linear Response Relations.- 4.7 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change.- 4.8 Nonlinear Signatures in Linear Response.- 4.9 Conclusion.- References.- 5. Atmospheric Persistence Analysis: Novel Approaches and Applications.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 Analysis of Meteorological Methods.- 5.3 The Modeling Approach.- 5.4 Record Analysis: Detrending Techniques.- 5.5 Analysis of Temperature Records.- 5.6 Analysis of Simulated Temperature Records.- 5.7 Conclusion.- References.- 6. Assessment and Management of Critical Events: The Breakdown of Marine Fisheries and The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 The Role of Market Mechanisms in Marine Resource Exploitation.- 6.3 Could Europe’s Heating System be Threatened by Human Interference?.- 6.4 Conclusion.- References.- III. Biodynamics.- 7. Fractal and Multifractal Approaches in Physiology.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 Limitations of Traditional Techniques.- 7.3 Monofractal Analysis.- 7.4 Multifractal Analysis.- 7.5 Conclusion.- References.- 8. Physiological Relevance of Scaling of Heart Phenomena.- 8.1 Introduction.- 8.2 Methods of Scaling Analysis.- 8.3 Heart Rate During Sleep.- 8.4 Timing Between Arrhythmic Events.- 8.5 Conclusion.- References.- 9. Local Scaling Properties for Diagnostic Purposes.- 9.1 Introduction.- 9.2 Reductionism.- 9.3 Scaling Index Method.- 9.4 Applications.- 9.5 Conclusion.- References.- 10. Unstable Periodic Orbits and Stochastic Synchronization in Sensory Biology.- 10.1 Introduction.- 10.2 Unstable Periodic Orbits in Physical and Biological Systems.- 10.3 Synchronization of Stable Periodic Orbits in the Paddlefish Electroreceptor with an External Periodic Stimulus.- 10.4 Conclusion.- References.- 11. Crowd Disasters and Simulation of Panic Situations.- 11.1 Introduction.- 11.2 Observations.- 11.3 Generalized Force Model of Pedestrian Motion.- 11.4 Simulation Results.- 11.5 Conclusions.- References.- IV. Nonlinear Economics.- 12. Investigations of Financial Markets Using Statistical Physics Methods.- 12.1 Introduction.- 12.2 Econophysics.- 12.3 An Historical Note.- 12.4 Key Concepts.- 12.5 Idealized Systems in Physics and Finance.- 12.6 Empirical Analysis.- 12.7 Collective Dynamics.- 12.8 Conclusion.- References.- 13. Market Fluctuations I: Scaling, Multiscaling, and Their Possible Origins.- 13.1 Introduction.- 13.2 Scahng in the Probability Distribution of Returns.- 13.3 Temporal Dependence.- 13.4 Multiscahng, Multifractality, and Turbulence in Financial Markets.- 13.5 Explanations of Financial Scaling Laws.- 13.6 Conclusion.- References.- 14. Market Fluctuations II: Multiplicative and Percolation Models, Size Effects, and Predictions.- 14.1 Stylized Facts of Financial Time Series.- 14.2 Fluctuations of Demand and Supply in Open Markets.- 14.3 Percolation Models.- 14.4 Critical Crashes.- 14.5 Conclusion.- References.

O autorze

Dr. J. Kropp, Senior scientist at PIK, he studied chemistry and physics and in 1992 he took a diploma in theoretical chemistry at the University of Oldenburg. From 1993-1998 he was research fellow at PIK, from 1998-2001 project leader of a research project on costal zone management at the Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, and from 2001 research analyst and member of staff of the German Advisory Council on Global Change to the Federal Government (WBGU). His research interests are the development of methods for integrated impact assessments, in particular, with respect to vulnerability, risk assessment, and adaptation to climate change and in the context of decision making and various institutional settings.
He leads several European joint projects (e.g. disaster and risk assessment) and has published numerous papers. Prof. Dr. Hans J. Schellnhuber: Born in 1950 in Ortenburg (Germany). Training in physics and mathematics with a at the University of Regensburg. Doctorate in Theoretical Physics in 1980. Various periods of research abroad, in particular at several institutions of the University of California system (USA). Habilitation (German qualification for professorial status) in 1985, then Heisenberg Fellowship. 1991 Founding Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). 2001-2005 additional engagement as Research Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and Professor at the Environmental Sciences School of the University of East Anglia in Norwich (UK).2002 Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award; 2004 CBE (Commander of the Order of the British Empire) awarded by Queen Elizabeth II. Elected Member of the Max Planck Society, the US National Academy of Sciences, the Leibniz-Sozietät, the Geological Society of London, and the International Research Society Sigma Xi. Ambassador for the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). Active service on some dozen national and international panels for scientific strategies and policy advice on environment & development matters. Chief Government Advisor on climate and related issues for the German G8-EU twin presidency in 2007.