The Longevity Argument: The Doomsday Argument is wrong, and logical induction has a philosophical basis.

ISBN-13: 9781532847417 / Angielski / Miękka / 2016 / 92 str.

Ronald Pisaturo

Opis

The Doomsday Argument, Self-Sampling Assumption, and Self-Indication Assumption are wrong; J. Richard Gott III's delta "t" argument underestimates longevity, providing lower bounds on probabilities of longevity, and is equivalent to Laplace's Rule of Succession; but Non-Parametric Predictive Inference based on the work of Bruce M. Hill and Frank P.A. Coolen is consistent with a plausible theory of induction; and Ayn Rand's identification of characteristics as ranges of measurement establishes a philosophical foundation for such a theory of induction. This monograph is a much-revised and much-expanded version of the author's article, "Past Longevity as Evidence for the Future," published in the January 2009 issue of "Philosophy of Science," often recognized as the leading peer-reviewed journal on the philosophy of science. Since its publication, that article has been cited favorably in these top-ranked philosophical journals: "Journal of Philosophy," Analysis, "Synthese," and "Ratio."