The Logic of Intelligence Analysis: Why Hypothesis Testing Matters

ISBN-13: 9780367606947 / Angielski / Miękka / 2020 / 120 str.

Karl Spielmann

Opis

This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis.

Recenzje

'Intelligence analysts, those training for the job, and people interested in analytic tradecraft need to understand the intellectual challenges and pitfalls of predicting what adversaries will do. Even more, they need better tools. These are provided by Karl Spielmann, who brings to bear his life-long experience in the CIA and National Intelligence Council to show how we can improve analysis'. - - Robert Jervis, Columbia University, USA

Spis treści

Preface: Revisiting an Old Problem: New Concerns, New Remedies  Chapter 1: Maybe It’s Time for Something Different  Chapter 2: Strengthening Intelligence Threat Analysis  Chapter 3: Using Enhanced Analytic Techniques for Threat Analysis: A Case Study Illustration  Chapter 4: I Got Algorithm: Can There Be a Nate Silver in Intelligence?

O autorze

Karl Spielmann is a retired Senior Analyst who worked in the Denial and Deception component of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Directorate of Intelligence and on the U.S. inter-agency National Intelligence Council. He holds a PhD in Political Science from Harvard University.