The History of Econometric Ideas

ISBN-13: 9780521424653 / Angielski / Miękka / 1991 / 316 str.

Mary Morgan; Craufurd Goodwin

Opis

The History of Econometric Ideas covers the period from the late nineteenth century to the middle of the twentieth century, illustrating how economists first learned to harness statistical methods to measure and test the "laws" of economics. Though scholarly, Dr. Morgan's book is very accessible; it does not require a high level of prior statistical knowledge, and will be of interest to practicing statisticians and economists.

Recenzje

'This book is a gem in its individual chapters, but the whole is much more than the sum of those parts. The writing is level clear and restrained; the suggestions are insightful and warranted.' Neil de Marchi, Duke University

Spis treści

List of figures; Preface; Acknowledgements; Introduction; Part I. Business Cycles: Introduction to business cycles; 1. Sunspot and Venus theories of the business cycle: 1.1. Jevons' sunspot theory; 1.2. Moore's Venus theory; 1.3. The decline of periodic cycle analysis; 2. Measuring and representing business cycles: 2.1. Juglar's credit cycle; 2.2. The statistical approach of W. C. Mitchell; 2.3. Persons and business barometers; 2.4. The business cycle research institutes; 2.5. Statistical economics and econometrics; Addendum: graphs and graphic methods; 3. Random shocks enter the business cycle scene: 3.1. The experiments of Yule and Slutsky; 3.2. Frisch's time-series analysis; 3.3. Frisch's rocking horse model of the business cycle; 4. Tinbergen and macrodynamic models: 4.1. The Dutch model; 4.2. The first League of Nations' report; 4.3. The second League of Nations' report; 4.4. the critical reaction to Tinbergen's work; Part II. Demand Analysis: Introduction to demand analysis; 5. Narrowing the data-theory gap in demand analysis: 5.1. Difficulties in early statistical measurements of demand; 5.2. Static theory and time-series data; 5.3. Econometric models of demand; 5.4. The data-theory gap under review; 6. The evolution of identification questions: 6.1. The emergence of correspondence problems; 6.2. Identifying the demand curve; 6.3. The identification of two relationships; 6.4. Back to the single demand curve; Part III. Formal models in econometrics: Introduction to formal models; 7. Errors-in-variables and errors-in equations models: 7.1. Errors and the single equation; 7.2. Errors and interdependent relationships; 7.3. Postscript: measurement errors and the method of instrumental variables; 8. Haavelmo's probability model: 8.1. Statistics without probability; 8.2. Signs of change; 8.3. Haavelmo's probabilistic revolution in econometrics; 8.4. The new consensus; Conclusion; References; Index.