The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival

ISBN-13: 9781461587583 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 419 str.

Stephen Schneider

Opis

In a scientifically exacting world scientists must assume responsibility for the consequences of science and technology . . . . The individual member of the educational and scientific estate may wish to avoid responsibility; but he cannot justify it by the claim of higher commitment. -JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH The New Industrial State Scientists can no longer afford to be ndive about the political effects of publicly stated scientific opinions. If the effect of their scientific views is politically potent, they have an obligation to declare their political or value assumptions, and to try to be honest with themselves, their colleagues and their audience about the degree to which these assumptions have affected their selection and interpretation of scientific evidence. Once scientific opinion enters into the public domain, the possibility of political neutrality disappears, but this does not mean that objectivity should be thrown to the winds. HARVEY BROOKS, 1973 Harvard University Imagine a huge ship-let's call it Titanic Il-crossing the North Atlantic. While the passengers enjoy the comfort for which they are paying so dearly, the first mate at the helm believes he sees the dreaded form of an iceberg about three miles ahead through the thick fog. He hurries to tell the captain about it. As a veteran of countless uneventful voyages, the captain is skeptical of the danger. Nevert- ix The Genesis Strategy less, he proceeds quickly to the helm, but fails to see any obstacle ahead in the fog.

Spis treści

I Climate, Technology, and Human Survival: An Overview.- 1. The Weather: No Longer a Subject for Small Talk.- The Next Five Years: The Weather Reigns.- Nature Is Getting Competition: Inadvertent Climate Modification.- Ban the Can?: Should We Let the Atmosphere “Perform the Experiment”?.- Chlorine Water Purification and Nitrogen Fertilizer: Mixed Blessings?.- Heat Pollution: Big Is Bad.- The Population Factor.- Climate Control: A Cure Worse Than the Disease?.- 2. The Great Debate over the World Predicament.- The Technological Fix: Panacea for the Future?.- Exponential Growth: The Pessimists’ Fear.- More Technology: The Optimists’ Hope.- Each Side Blames the Other.- To Feed the World: More Technology or Fewer People? 30.- Energy for Survival: More or Less of It?.- The Genesis Strategy—An Approach to Action.- Decision-Making with Uncertain Inputs.- Two-, Four-, and Six-Year Cycles.- Lifeboat Ethics and Triage: The Science of Inhuman Ecology.- The Global Survival Compromise.- II Climate-Related Crises.- 3. Climate History—What if It Repeats?.- Ice Ages and In-Between.- Unlocking Climatic Secrets.- Climatic Connections.- Lessons from Climatic History.- The Recent “Cooling Trend”: Does It Mean More Climatic Variability?.- Sahelian Drought: The Desert Advances.- Unusual Weather May Be Increasing.- 1972 and 1974: Food Production Drops, Food Prices Soar.- What Does It All Mean?.- The Actuarial Approach to Climate Prediction.- Actions Before Certainty.- 4. The North American Grain Drain.- North America: The Food Giant.- World Food Security.- What Makes High Yields.- Canadian Grain Production.- USDA’s Long-Term Outlook: Extrapolation from Good Years.- Weather Variability Belongs in Long-Range Planning.- 5. Everything Is Connected to Everything Else: A Review of the Theory of Climate.- “The Message Is the Medium”.- Climate and Weather Are Different Things.- The Sun: The Prime Mover.- The Radiation Balance, the Albedo, and the Greenhouse Effect.- The Weather Machine.- Earth Is the Water Planet.- No Polar Bears in England, Thanks to the Gulf Stream.- The Ice-Feedback Mechanism.- Causes of Climatic Change.- Natural Factors.- Human Impact on Climate.- Some Theories on the Sahelian Drought Disaster.- Mathematical Models of the Climate.- 6. Weather and Climate Modification.- Climatic Limits to Growth.- The Energy-Growth Dilemma—Economic Development Versus Climatological Disruption.- Climatic Barriers to Energy Growth.- Climatic Sensitivity to Energy Production.- Climatic Feedback Mechanisms.- Climatic Effects of Widespread Harvesting of Natural Energy Flows.- Water Power: Too Little for Exponential Growth.- Solar Power: Not a Panacea, but a Promising Alternative.- Wind Power: Another Useful Energy Supplement.- Carbon Dioxide and Dust: Indicators of “Gross National Pollution”.- The Ozone Layer: It Protects Life on Earth.- The Case of the Supersonic Transports (SSTs).- When “Inert” Isn’t Always Inert: The Case of the Aerosol Spray Cans.- “What the Hell Else Slipped By?”.- Deliberate Climatic Modification Schemes.- Why Tamper with the Climate?.- Melting the Arctic Sea Ice.- Science Fiction Indeed!.- Make Rain, Not War.- To Learn or Not to Learn?.- 7. The Politics of Climate.- Environment Versus Economics: A Public Policy Value Judgment.- What Have They Done to the Rain Lately?.- The Case of the Colorado River.- To Fix a Fix with a Fix: Cloud-Seeding in the Colorado Basin.- Climate Control: The Ultimate Technological Fix.- Operational Weather Modifiers: Military and Civilian.- The Weather Fix: “When in Doubt, Try It Out!”.- Oil in the Arctic: “Exxon-eration” Versus Caution.- An Age-Old Plan for Survival: The Genesis Strategy.- “No-Fault Climate Disaster Insurance”.- Control the Climate Controllers, Not the Climate.- III Climate Change and the World Predicament.- 8. The Politics of Food.- The Hungry Look to the United States.- The World Food Conference: Long on Blame, Short on Negotiation.- Earl Butz Versus the “Fuzzy-Thinking Do-Gooders”.- The “Pits Would Go Crazy”: The Debate over Food Reserves, Free Markets, and the Chicago “Grain Trust”.- Meeting World Food Needs: Can It Be Done in Time?.- Indiana to India Shift.- The Green Revolution in Tropical Agriculture: Panacea or Disaster?.- Diversity in Tropical Agriculture.- The Demographic Transition and the Transfer of Technology.- Developing Agriculture in the Less Developed Countries.- Development Leads to Social Change.- Thailand Proves That Agriculture Can Pay.- The People’s Republic of China: Is This the Only Way for Asia?.- Latin America: Still Well Below Its Potential.- Prospects for Increasing Food Production: Technologically Optimistic but Politically Bleak.- 9. The Genesis Strategy: Suggestions for a Way Out of the World Predicament.- Energy-Climate-Development Dilemmas.- Nuclear Blackmail.- The Genesis Strategy: A Hedge Against Catastrophe.- Some New Institutions.- World Security Institutes.- A New American Institution: The Fourth Branch of Government.- Some New and Better Agreements.- Global Survival Compromise.- Terrorist Abatement Treaty.- Nuclear Materials Inventory and Control Commission.- Geophysical-Environment Modification Treaty.- Some Revised Attitudes and Procedures.- Limits to Incumbency.- Science Advice to Government.- Interdisciplinary Integration.- Attitudes for the Future.- IV Appendices, Illustrations, Bibliography, Notes, and Index.- A. Climatic Effects of Deforestation of the Amazon.- B. Natural Power Densities in the Earth-Atmosphere System.- C. Illustrations.- D. Suggested Readings.- E. Notes and References.- F. Index.