The Future of Housing Markets: A New Appraisal

ISBN-13: 9781468451634 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 200 str.

Leland S. Burns; Leo Grebler; Leland S. Burns

Opis

This book's title betrays at once that it belongs in the forecast literature. Peering into the future is a notoriously treacherous venture. Nevertheless, it has become a prac tice endemic to the business and government worlds as well as to academia, especially economics. We like to be lieve that the enormous growth of forecasting in the face of some disappointments reflects real needs of decision makers (as well as the general public's well-warranted curiosity about the future). Fashion alone could hardly explain the sustained increase in the market for forecast services during the past few decades. Some professionals insist on fine distinctions be tween the forecast, the projection, the prediction-and the prophecy. The differences are more semantic than real, as the mandatory resort to Webster confirms. The entry "forecast" includes references to prediction and prophecy without differentiation, while "projection" is defined, among other things, as prediction or "advance estimate." We use mainly the term projections because v PREFACE vi much of our statistical research is based on forward es timates of population and households by the U.S. Bu reau of the Census which the bureau itself, the greatest fountain of data in the world, records as projections."

Spis treści

1 Introduction.- 2 The Changing Demographic Base of Housing Demand.- Decline of the Young Adult Generation.- Slowing Growth of Households.- The Future Shift to Middle-Aged Household Heads.- Changing Composition of Households.- Appendix A: Technical Detail on the Census Population Projections.- Appendix B: Detailed Data on Adult Population and Households.- Notes.- References.- 3 Socioeconomic Trends Affecting Household Formation.- A Rationale for Discontinuity of Trends.- The “Vital Statistics”.- Growth of Women in the Labor Force.- Income as a Determinant of Housing Demand.- Trends in the Ethnic Population Mix.- Appendix C: Data on the Changing Ethnic-Racial Population Mix.- Appendix D: Contributions to Consumer Purchasing Power, 1950–1980.- Notes.- References.- 4 Housing in People’s Life Cycle.- Stage I: Entry into the Housing Market—The 25–34 Age Group.- Stage II: The Young Middle-Aged—35–44.- Stage III: The Mature Middle-Aged—45–54.- Stage IV: The Senior Middle-Aged—55–64.- Stage V: The Elderly—Age 65 and Over.- Households, Incomes, Age, and the Affordability Issue.- Does Cohort Size Influence Incomes?.- Appendix E: Detailed Data on Socioeconomic Characteristics of Households by Age of Household Head.- Notes.- References.- 5 The Housing of the Future: Demand Changes and Supply Response.- Quantity versus Quality—The Perennial Alternatives.- The Case for Quality Improvements.- Mechanization of Household Operations.- New Functions of the Dwelling Place.- Root Cause: The Economics of Time.- Main Effect: Increased Value of the Home.- Stagnation of Homeownership.- Future Trends on the Supply Side.- The General Economic Climate.- Appendix F: Detailed Data on Consumer Purchasing Power and on Homeownership.- Notes.- References.