The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty

ISBN-13: 9781119868149 / Angielski / Twarda / 2022 / 240 str.

Hakan Jankensgard

Spis treści

Prologue 3Chapter 1: The Swans Revisited 7The nature of randomness 8The Moving Tail 11The role of expectations 16What makes us suckers? 20The relativity of Black Swans 24Meet the preppers 28Chapter 2: Corporate Swans 31The Board's perspective 31Swans attack 33Strategy Swans 35The Swan within 39The growth fetish 42The fear factor 47The Chief Executive Swan 49Swans on the rise 52Chapter 3: The Black Swan Problem 60Tail risk and firm value 60Understanding wipeouts 65Strategy disruption 71All you zombies 76The affordability issue 78The conundrum 84Chapter 4: Greeting the Swan 90Randomness redux 90The roads not taken 98Functional stupidity 102The Swanmakers 108On tools and models 112A Swan radar for the Board 116Chapter 5: Taming the Swan 122Drawing the line 122Distance to wipeout 129Risk capital 131Stress testing 140The exit option 146Resilience vs endurance 150Quantitative models 155Liquidity is king 162Chapter 6: Catching the Swan 166Antifragility 167Restoring the true path 170Buying on the cheap 173Opportunity capital 176Flight to safety 182Risk as strategy 187Chapter 7: Riding the Swan 192Risk shifting 192A beautiful strategy 199Fuel for growth 203Narcissism redeemed 208A tail of two companies 211End of the ride 215Swans to the rescue? 217Epilogue 221

O autorze

Håkan Jankensgård is a risk philosopher and modeler. He has been passionate about the philosophy, theory and practice of risk management for over 25 years. He has done extensive academic research into various aspects of this field such as the theory of enterprise risk management, firms' hedging strategies, risk governance, and risk capital. This research has been published in well-respected, peer-reviewed academic journals like Financial Management, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Accounting Business & Finance, and European Financial Management. He is actively developing the concept of Risk budgeting, which is about incorporating knowledge about risk and risk appetite into the forecasting models that management uses for financial and strategic decision-making. Jankensgård is a professor of corporate finance and holds a PhD from Lund University.