The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations: Macroeconomics Meets Psychology

ISBN-13: 9781108482851 / Angielski / Twarda / 2020 / 243 str.

R

Opis

A behavioral approach to modeling macroeconomic expectations.

Recenzje

'Rötheli's theory of expectations heads deep into the wilderness by taking cognitive sciences as the first principles. The book is very well-written and expertly guides the reader through Rötheli's paradigm for how people form expectations and impact the economy, inflation, and interest rates … the book is thought provoking, with a novel look at a critical topic in economics.' William Branch, Journal of Economic Literature

Spis treści

1. Patterns and expectations; 2. Extrapolation and expectations; 3. Eliciting expectations under laboratory conditions; 4. Features of the laboratory data; 5. Similarity matching and scaling the experimental data; 6. Pattern extrapolation and expectations measured by consumer surveys; 7. Heterogeneity and uncertainty of inflation expectations; 8. Inflation dynamics; 9. Explaining the course of interest rates; 10. Generalizing the pattern-based approach; 11. A detour to income expectations; 12. The Fisher effect in historical times; 13. Expectations of high inflation; 14. The Fisher effect in Asian economies; 15. The Fisher effect in African economies; 16. Estimates of expected inflation for major economies; 17. Estimates of expected real interest rates for major economies; Epilogue.