The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations: Macroeconomics Meets Psychology

ISBN-13: 9781108447065 / Angielski / Miękka / 2020 / 243 str.

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Opis

This book offers a modern behavioral economics analysis of macroeconomic expectations, using cognitive psychology and a bottom-up approach to economic expectations. It gives students and researchers a quantitative model for analyzing inflation, interest rates and business cycle phenomena for any country or historical period.

Recenzje

'Rötheli's theory of expectations heads deep into the wilderness by taking cognitive sciences as the first principles. The book is very well-written and expertly guides the reader through Rötheli's paradigm for how people form expectations and impact the economy, inflation, and interest rates … the book is thought provoking, with a novel look at a critical topic in economics.' William Branch, Journal of Economic Literature

Spis treści

1. Patterns and expectations; 2. Extrapolation and expectations; 3. Eliciting expectations under laboratory conditions; 4. Features of the laboratory data; 5. Similarity matching and scaling the experimental data; 6. Pattern extrapolation and expectations measured by consumer surveys; 7. Heterogeneity and uncertainty of inflation expectations; 8. Inflation dynamics; 9. Explaining the course of interest rates; 10. Generalizing the pattern-based approach; 11. A detour to income expectations; 12. The Fisher effect in historical times; 13. Expectations of high inflation; 14. The Fisher effect in Asian economies; 15. The Fisher effect in African economies; 16. Estimates of expected inflation for major economies; 17. Estimates of expected real interest rates for major economies; Epilogue.