Survival Kit for an Equity Analyst: The Essentials You Must Know

ISBN-13: 9781119822448 / Angielski / Twarda / 2021 / 208 str.

Shin Horie

Spis treści

Preface: Why I Wanted to Write This Book xiIntroduction: How to Approach Company Analysis xvList of Acronyms xixPart I: Lessons From the Past: My Story as an Analyst 1From Fish Cakes to Computer Numerical Control (1988-1995) 2Not Just a Japanese Tourist - Becoming a China H-share Analyst (1996-1998) 5A Truly Global Research Experience - Semiconductor Analyst (1998-2007) 7New Lexicon: Clinical Trial, Cap Rate, Embedded Value, Metal Spread (2008-2013) 11Importing DM Experience to EM: From Japan to Asia-Pacific (2014-2017) 13Connecting the Dots: From Asia to Global (2018-now) 16Part II: Laying the Groundwork 19Chapter 1: Understand the 'Character' of the Industry 21Six Basic Steps for Forecasting Industry Growth 22TAM Growth Rate 27Ten Additional Angles for Testing Forecasts 28Chapter 2: Assess the Earnings Drivers in Different Industries 37Hyper Growth - Internet, Fintech, Biotechnology 45Secular Growth - Software, Medical Technology 48Cyclical - Capital Goods, Transport, Energy,Commodities, Chemicals, Autos 49Cyclical Growth - Semiconductor, Electronic Components, Technology Hardware, Clean Energy 54Stable - Consumer Staples, Retail, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceutical, Media, Business Services 58Interest Rate Sensitive - REITs, Property Developers, Banks, Insurance 63Regulated - Utilities, Telecoms 66Chapter 3: Identify the 'Personality' of the Company 71Product and Service 71Origin and History 72Management Profile 73Ownership Structure 73Value Chain 74Competitive Moat 75Track Record of Strategic Decisions 76Corporate Culture by Country 77Earnings Guidance Track Record 77Controversy Record 78Management Quality - A Framework 78Part III: Analyse and Apply the Findings 83Chapter 4: Put Findings into the Earnings Model 85Segmental Revenue Forecast 87Income Statement Forecast 88Balance Sheet Forecast 95Cash Flow Forecast 98How to Put Cyclicality into Long-term Earnings Forecasts 100Quarterly Forecasts can be Helpful 100A Birdseye View is Helpful 101Financial and Property Sectors are Unique 101Chapter 5: Summarize All Thoughts 105A Suggested Method for Creating a Practical Scorecard 105Chapter 6: Find the Appropriate Valuation Framework 109Hyper Growth - Internet, Biotechnology 112Secular Growth - Software, Medical Technology 114Cyclical - Capital Goods, Transport, Energy,Commodities, Chemicals, Autos 115Cyclical Growth - Semiconductor, Technology Hardware, Clean Energy 116Stable - Consumer Staples, Retail, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceutical, Media, Business Services 117Interest Rate Sensitive - Banks, Emerging Market Banks, Insurance, Property, REITs 118Regulated - Utilities, Telecoms 120Conglomerates 121Additional Considerations on Valuation 124Chapter 7: Differentiation versus Street 131Is the View Actually Different? 131Where is the Difference? 132What is Driving the Difference? 133Value of an Undifferentiated Conclusion 134Part IV: What to Research and How to Power the Analysis 135Chapter 8: How to Generate Exciting Ideas 1371: Burning Questions 1372: Products to Solve Problems 1383: Forgotten New Technologies 1384: 'Little Stories' 1395: New Language 1406: B2B and Orphan Stocks 1407: The Second or Third Derivatives of Structural Changes 1418: Local Trends 1419: Inputs from the Real World 141Chapter 9: How to Deal with Disruptors, Emerging Markets, ESG, and Downturns 145How to Forecast and Value 'Disruptors' 145How Should Emerging Markets be Looked at? 149How to Think about ESG Issues 151How to Cope with Economic Downturns 155Chapter 10: Using Soft Skills to Power the Analysis 157How to Build a Relationship with Companies 157How to Leverage the Team 159How to Communicate Ideas Effectively 161What Types of Training Should New Analysts Ask for? 163Time Management 165Part V: Recap and Closing Thoughts 169About the Author 173Acknowledgements 175Index 177

O autorze

SHIN HORIE is cohead of Global Single-Name Research (Equity and Credit Research) for Goldman Sachs and is a board member of Goldman Sachs Asia LLC. He is the former director of the Japan Equity Research Department and the former manager of the Korea and Taiwan Equity Research Departments.