Structural Transformation of Bangladesh Economy: A South Asian Perspective

ISBN-13: 9789811607660 / Angielski / Miękka / 2022 / 308 str.

Mustafa K. Mujeri;Neaz Mujeri

Opis

This book examines the theory and global evidence on structural transformation along with stylised facts and implications using, among others, a dynamic panel model, for South Asia. The characteristics of the structural transformation process in Bangladesh bring out the relevance of a comprehensive and inclusive South Asian ‘brand’ in view of the challenges of large population size, high burden of poverty, rising inequalities and its compulsion to achieve rapid and sustained inclusive development.The analysis highlights several distinct characteristics of Bangladesh’s structural transformation including changes in value added, trade, employment, productivity, formal-informal jobs, and opportunities for low-skilled workers. The book suggests that the manufacturing sector could not create the required number of jobs and generate rapid absolute and relative productivity gains in the Bangladesh economy. Although the services sector has largely led output and employment growth, services subsectors with strong labour absorptive capacity have low average productivity. Hence, growth-enhancing structural transformation led by these subsectors is likely to be less dynamic than required for rapid employment-creating growth in the economy.The book’s analysis on COVID-19 and cyclone Amphan shows that an integrated disaster and development paradigm is needed for Bangladesh. An inclusive and health and well-being focused structural transformation presents the pathway to advance the people-centred approach to development in Bangladesh through both vulnerability reduction and investments in sustainable development that would offset both known and unknown disaster threats. The key for Bangladesh is to skillfully manage the ‘developer’s dilemma’ of achieving both structural transformation in terms of large productivity gains and inclusive growth for reducing poverty and rising inequalities. This book is relevant to students, academicians and development practitioners and others interested in contemporary development.

Spis treści

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1  Introduction

1.2  A Multidimensional View

1.3  Bangladesh’s Structural Transformation

1.4  Primacy of Equality Horizon

1.5  Organisation of Chapters

 

Chapter 2: Structural Transformation: Theory and Global Evidence

 

        2.1 Introduction

        2.2 Measures of Structural Transformation

        2.3 Gains from Structural Transformation

        2.4 Structural Transformation: Global Trends

               2.4.1 Historical Trends of Developed Countries

               2.4.2 Recent Trends in Developed and Developing Countries

               2.4.3 Structural Transformation and Premature Deindustrialisation

         2.5 Structural Transformation and Development Theory

                2.5.1 The Neoclassical Growth Models

                2.5.2 The Structuralist Framework

                2.5.3 The New Structural Economics

                2.5.4 Revival of New Latin American Structuralism

                2.5.5 The Value-Chain Approach

                2.5.6 Resource-based Industrialisation

         2.6 Empirical Evidence on Structural Transformation

                2.6.1 Manufacturing as Engine of Economic Growth

                2.6.2 Effect of Structural Transformation on Labour Productivity

                2.6.3 Structural Change within Manufacturing Activities

                2.6.4 Industrial Upgrading within Value Chains

          2.7 Premature Deindustrialisation: Role of Services Sector

          2.8 Structural Transformation and Development

                 2.8.1 Structural Transformation and Labour Market Changes

          2.9 Structural Transformation, Employment and Poverty

                 2.9.1 Structural Transformation and Human Development

          2.10 Concluding Remarks

 

Chapter 3: Structural Transformation in South Asia: An Overview

 

         3.1 Introduction

         3.2 Structural Transformation in South Asia

                3.2.1 South Asian Growth Surprises

                3.2.2 GDP Growth and Its Composition

                3.2.3 Changes in Macro Aggregates

         3.3 Productivity Growth and ST in South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis

               3.3.1 A Dynamic Panel Model

               3.3.2 Methodology and Data

               3.3.3 Empirical Results and Implications

        3.4 Factors Influencing ST in South Asia

               3.4.1 Reforms for Transition and Growth

        3.5 Poverty and Human Development

              3.5.1 Multidimensional Poverty in South Asia

        3.6 South Asia: A Region of Growing Inequality

               3.6.1 Income and Wealth Inequalities

               3.6.2 Landlessness and Rising Inequality

               3.6.3 Gender Inequality

               3.6.4 Rising Informality in Employment

         3.7 Inequality in Access to Basic Services

                3.7.1 Access to Water and Sanitation

                3.7.2 Access to Health Services

                3.7.3 Access to Education

                3.7.4 Inequality in Fiscal Regime

         3.8 Sophistication of Exports of South Asian Countries

         3.9 Concluding Remarks

 

Chapter 4: Structural Transformation: Macro Characteristics in Bangladesh

 

        4.1 Introduction

        4.2 Economic Structure before Independence

        4.3 Growth and Structural Transformation, 1971-2020

               4.3.1 Growth of GDP and GDP Per Capita

               4.3.2 GDP by Use

               4.3.3 Changes of GDP by Industrial Origin

               4.3.4 Savings and Capital Formation

               4.3.5 Sectoral Composition of GDP

         4.4 Economic Growth and Structural Transformation

                4.4.1 Structural Transformation in the Bangladesh Economy

                4.4.2 Interdependence, Linkages and Leading Sectors

         4.5 Changes in Sectoral Share of Employment

         4.6 Uniqueness of Bangladesh’s Structural Transformation

 

Chapter 5: Bangladesh’s Rural Transformation

        5.1 Introduction

        5.2 Economic Structure and Agriculture in South Asia

               5.2.1 Nature of Rural Transformation

               5.2.2 Urge for Diversifying Rural Livelihoods

       5.3 Changes in Agriculture in Bangladesh

              5.3.1 Growth in Crop and Horticulture

              5.3.2 Drivers of Crop Sector Growth

              5.3.3 Changes in Resource Base of Agriculture

              5.3.4 Production Organisation: Land Reforms and Property Rights

      5.4 Non-Crop Sector in Bangladesh

            5.4.1 Growth and Development of Fisheries

            5.4.2 Livestock and Poultry

            5.4.3 Women in Non-crop Agriculture

            5.4.4 Forestry Activities  

     5.5 Agribusiness Development for Agricultural Transformation

            5.5.1 Marketing Linkages in Bangladesh Agriculture

            5.5.2 Integration of Market Participants

            5.5.3 Value Chain Management Development

     5.6 Commercialisation of Bangladesh Agriculture

            5.6.1 Diversification of Agriculture

     5.7 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

            5.7.1 Climate Change and Bangladesh Agriculture

            5.7.2 Water Resources and Hydrology

            5.7.3 Long Term Climate Change Vulnerability

            5.7.4 Climate Change Adaptation:  Modifying Agriculture

            5.7.5 Protecting Agriculture from Climate Change Impacts

     5.8 Contract Farming: Implications for Small Farmers

     5.9 The Rural Non-Farm Sector

     5.10 Agricultural Transformation in Bangladesh: Future Directions

     5.11 Agricultural Transformation: Policy Priorities

     5.12 Concluding Remarks

 

Chapter 6: Industrial Transformation in Bangladesh

 

     6.1 Introduction

     6.2 Changes in Industry Sector in Bangladesh

            6.2.1 Employment Structure and Dynamics in Industry Sector

            6.2.2 Evolution of Industrial Policy Framework

            6.2.3 Changes in Manufacturing

     6.3 Trade Liberalisation in Bangladesh

     6.4 Sub-sectoral Sources of Manufacturing Growth

            6.4.1 Structure of Manufacturing in Bangladesh

            6.4.2 SMEs and Cluster Development

            6.4.3 Development Potential of Cottage and Micro Enterprises

     6.5 The RMGs Industry in Bangladesh

     6.6 Role of FDIs in Bangladesh

     6.7 Constraints to and Challenges of Manufacturing

     6.8 Policy Options for Manufacturing Development

     6.9 Concluding Remarks

 

Chapter 7: Services Sector in Bangladesh: Changes and Prospects

 

        7.1 Introduction

              7.1.1 Modernising Services Sector in South Asia

        7.2 Bangladesh’s Services Sector

        7.3 Employment Dynamics in Services Sector

        7.4 Software and ITES in Bangladesh

             7.4.1 ICT Industry in Bangladesh

             7.4.2 Key Opportunities

             7.4.3 Logistics and Transportation: Mega Projects

             7.4.4 Challenges and Issues in Reaching High Services Growth

             7.4.5 Way Forward  

       7.5 Digital Financial Services

              7.5.1 Progress of DFS

              7.5 2 Exploiting DFS in Bangladesh

              7.5.3 Digital Inclusion for Women

              7.5.4 Challenges for Digital Inclusion of the Poor

       7.6 Rising Remittances and Their Impact

              7.6.1 Remittances, Household Income and Asset Accumulation 

       7.7 Concluding Remarks

 

Chapter 8: Inclusive Structural Transformation: Policy Agenda for Bangladesh

 

       8.1 Introduction

       8.2 Bangladesh’s ST: Need for An Inclusive Agenda

       8.3 Developing Entrepreneurship and Enterprises 

       8.4 Policy Implications

             8.4.1 Creating Productive Employment

             8.4.2 Interaction between Formal and Informal Economy

             8.4.3 Countering Labour Market Imbalances

             8.4.4 4IR and Small Farmer Development

      8.5 Structural Transformation and Shared Prosperity

 

Chapter 9: Unexpected Challenges: COVID-19 and Cyclone Amphan

 

9.1 Introduction

9.2 Cyclone Amphan in May 2020

9.3 Global COVID-19 Pandemic

9.4 COVID-19 and Bangladesh

9.5 Socioeconomic Ramifications of COVID-19

      9.5.1 Impact on Economic Growth and Macroeconomy

      9.5.2 Impact on Employment and Labour Market

      9.5.3 Healthcare System and COVID-19 Response

      9.5.4 Gender Dimension of Response

9.6 Dimensions of Vulnerability

9.7 Need for Multi-Sectoral Responses

       9.7.1 Rapid Responses

       9.7.2 Medium and Long Term Response Framework

9.8 Exploiting Potentials of the ‘Gig Economy’

9.9 Concluding Remarks

O autorze

Mustafa Mujeri holds a Ph.D. in Economics from McMaster University in Canada and is currently the Executive Director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM) in Dhaka, Bangladesh. During his professional career, he has worked in different national and international organisations including teaching in Rajshahi University in Bangladesh and University of Queensland in Australia, National Expert in the Bangladesh Planning Commission, Research Director in the Centre on Integrated Rural Development in Asia and the Pacific (CIRDAP), UNDP Adviser in Cambodia, Chief Economist in the Bangladesh Bank (central bank) and Director General of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS). He has written and edited several books and published widely in national and international journals.

Neaz Mujeri holds an MBA in Finance from Independent University Bangladesh and B Comm. in Business Management from Ryerson University in Canada. He is currently the Executive Director & CEO, of the Center for Research Initiatives in Dhaka, Bangladesh. In the past, he has worked in various positions in the Career Development and Employment Centre and the Students Union of the Ryerson University. He has also worked as Senior Economist in different research projects of the  Research and Information System (RIS) in India and organisations in Dhaka.