Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics: A Feedback Systems Approach

ISBN-13: 9781118844687 / Angielski / Miękka / 2015 / 504 str.

J Morecroft

Opis

Insightful modelling of dynamic systems for better business strategy The business environment is constantly changing and organisations need the ability to rehearse alternative futures. By mimicking the interlocking operations of firms and industries, modelling serves as a 'dry run' for testing ideas, anticipating consequences, avoiding strategic pitfalls and improving future performance. Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics is an essential guide to credible models; helping you to understand modelling as a creative process for distilling and communicating those factors that drive business success and sustainability. Written by an internationally regarded authority, the book covers all stages of model building, from conceptual to analytical. The book demonstrates a range of in-depth practical examples that vividly illustrate important or puzzling dynamics in firm operations, strategy, public policy, and everyday life. This updated new edition also offers a rich Learners' website with models, articles and videos, as well as a separate Instructors' website resource, with lecture slides and other course materials (see Related Websites/Extra section below). Together the book and websites deliver a powerful package of blended learning materials that:

• Introduce the system dynamics approach of modelling strategic problems in business and society
• Include industry examples and public sector applications with interactive simulators and contemporary visual modelling software
• Provide the latest state-of-the-art thinking, concepts and techniques for systems modelling

The comprehensive Learners' website features models, microworlds, journal articles and videos. Easy-to-use simulators enable readers to experience dynamic complexity in business and society. Like would-be CEOs, readers can re-design operations and then re-simulate in the quest for well-coordinated strategy and better performance. The simulators include a baffling hotel shower, a start-up low-cost airline, an international radio broadcaster, a diversifying tyre maker, commercial fisheries and the global oil industry.

-Much more than an introduction, John Morecroft's Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics uses interactive 'mini-simulators and microworlds' to create an engaging and effective learning environment in which readers, whatever their background, can develop their intuition about complex dynamic systems.- John Sterman, Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management, MIT Sloan School of Management -Illustrated by examples from everyday life, business and policy, John Morecroft expertly demonstrates how systems thinking aided by system dynamics can improve our understanding of the world around us.- Stewart Robinson, Associate Dean Research, President of the Operational Research Society, Professor of Management Science, School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University

Spis treści

About the Author xix

Foreword xxi

Preface to the Second Edition xxiii

Preface from the First Edition xxvii

How to Use This Book xxxvii

Chapter 1 The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling 1

Chapter 2 Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking 31

Chapter 3 Modelling Dynamic Systems 63

Chapter 4 World of Showers 91

Chapter 5 Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building 109

Chapter 6 The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion 169

Chapter 7 Managing Business Growth 201

Chapter 8 Industry Dynamics Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers 271

Chapter 9 Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling 333

Chapter 10 Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning 403

About the Website Resources 000

Index 000

O autorze

John Morecroft is Senior Fellow in Management Science and Operations at London Business School where he has taught system dynamics, problem structuring and strategy in MBA, PhD and Executive Education programmes. He served as Associate Dean of the School′s Executive MBA and co–designed EMBA–Global, a dual degree programme with New York′s Columbia Business School.

Blurb

NEW, UPDATED EDITION

′Much more than an introduction, John Morecroft′s Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics uses interactive "mini–simulators and microworlds" to create an engaging and effective learning environment in which readers, whatever their background, can develop their intuition about complex dynamic systems.′
John Sterman, Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management, MIT Sloan School of Management

′This book, with its vivid examples and simulators, is helping to bring modelling, system dynamics and simulation into the mainstream of management education where they now belong.′
John A. Quelch, Professor of Marketing, Harvard Business School, Former Dean of London Business School

′An ideal text for students interested in system modelling and its application to a range of real–world problems. The book covers all that is necessary to develop expertise in system dynamics modelling and through the range of applications makes a persuasive case for the power and scope of SD modelling. As such, it will appeal to practitioners as well as students.′
Robert Dyson, Emeritus Professor, Operational Research and Management Sciences Group, Warwick Business School

′Illustrated by examples from everyday life, business and policy, John Morecroft expertly demonstrates how systems thinking aided by system dynamics can improve our understanding of the world around us. Anyone who is interested in understanding the world and making better choices should read this book.′
Stewart Robinson, Associate Dean (Research), President of the Operational Research Society, Professor of Management Science, School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University

′This text fills the gap between texts focusing on the purely descriptive systems approach and the more technical system dynamics ones.′
Ann van Ackere, Professor of Decision Sciences, HEC Lausanne, Université de Lausanne

′The author demonstrates the appeal and power of business modelling to make sense of strategic initiatives and to anticipate their impacts through simulation. The book offers various simulators that allow readers to conduct their own policy experiments.′
Dr Erich Zahn, Professor for Strategic Management, University of Stuttgart

Additional online resources are available at: www.wiley.com/go/strategicmodelling2e