Statistics in Ornithology

ISBN-13: 9780387961897 / Angielski / Miękka / 1985 / 418 str.

B. J. T. Morgan; Philip M. North; Byron J. T. Morgan

Opis

The genesis of this volume was in a one-day meeting arranged under the auspices of the Nathematical Ecology Group, jointly of the British Region of the Biometric Society and the British Ecological Society, and held in the Natural History Museum in London on the 4th May 1982. The object of the meeting was to bring together individuals from different dis- ciplines but with a common interest in ornithology. In this volume we have tried to preserve the flavour of the meeting so that all but two of the papers read or pre- sented as posters can be found here. The two papers that have not been included have since been published elsewhere: see Birkhead and Nettleship (1983) and Cav (1983). Further papers have been added to the volume from contributors who were unable to attend the London meeting, or were unable to present a paper there. All of the papers were refereed by ourselves. A volume which contains papers by both statisticians and non-statisticians is inevitably going to be variable with regard to the depth and range of statistical techniques used. Thus non-statisticians are likely to find some of the papers written by statisticians difficult at times, and conversely statisticians n2Y find that they would have treated some problems differently from non-statisticians. It is hoped, however, that this volun will increase awareness of the interests and problems (including solutions), in the general area of ornithology, and stimulate cross-fertilisation of ideas.

Spis treści

The General Context of Statistics in Ornithology.- The General Context of Statistics in Ornithology.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Analysis of Ring Recovery Data.- 2.1 Survival Studies.- 2.2 Movement Studies.- 3. Analysis of Census Data.- 4. Visible Migration.- 5. Discussion.- Section A General: Colour, Feeding, Movement and Migration.- Winter Feeding Assemblies, Wing Lengths and Weights of British Dunncocks.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Methods.- 3. Winter Feeding Assemblies.- 4. Wing Lengths And Weights of British Dunnocks.- A Bivariate Discrete Model of Changing Colour in Blackbirds.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The Dataset.- 3. Mantel’s Score Statistic.- 4. Constant Global Cross-Ratio Models.- Migration Counts and Local Weather at British Bird Observatories — An Examination By Linear Discriminant Analysis.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The Data.- 2.1 The Bird Data.- 2.2 The Weather Data.- 3. Preparation of the Data for Analysis.- 3.1 Time Dependency of Bird Counts.- 3.2 Subdividing Counts into Groups.- 4. Discriminant Analysis.- 4.1 Preliminary Tests.- 4.2 Results.- 4.3 Summary of the Main Results of the Discriminant Analysis.- 5. Discussion.- Statistical Problems in the Study of Seed-Eating Birds.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Costs and Benefits of Feeding.- 3. Handling Time and Seed Size.- 4. Variability of Costs and Benefits.- 5. Powers of Estimation.- 6. Unfinished Seed-Eating.- 7. Seed-Eating in Natural Environments.- Models to Describe Razorbill Movements.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Background to the Modelling.- 3. Models for Migration.- 4. Models for Dispersal.- 5. Discussion.- Accounting for Visible Migration.- 1.Introduction.- 2.Traditional Reporting Techniques.- 3.The New Accounting Procedure.- 3.1 Example: Fictitious Data.- 3.2 Further Example: Real Data.- 4. Applications Of The Technique.- Section B Analysis of Census Data.- Multivariate Analysis of Atlas Data.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Statistical Methods.- 3. Results.- 4. Discussion.- A Test for Seasonal Occurrence.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The test.- 3. Examples.- 4. Discussion.- An Index of Population Change With Application to the Common Bird Census.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Model.- 3. Application of the Method.- 4. Comparison of Species.- 5. Discussion.- Area-Species Incidence Recording.- 1. Background Classification of Organisms, Including Definition of Groups (Taxonomy) and Allocation of Individuals to Groups (Identification).- 2. Description of the site.- 3. Methods and Rationale.- 4. Analyses and Preliminary Results.- 5. Future Development.- 6. Further Developments Since May 1982.- Analyses of Nest Spacings.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Previous Work.- 3. Woodland Nests.- 4. Modelling Within Woodlands.- 5. Conclusions.- An Assessment of Species-Area Relationships Using Ornithological Data.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Bird Breeding on R.S.P.B. Reserves.- 3. Common Birds Census Data.- 4. Discussion.- Apparent Systematic Effects on Species-Area Curves Under Isolation and Evolution.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Background Considerations.- 3. Results.- 4. Conclusion.- Section C Survival.- Are Hunting Losses of Young Black Ducks (Anas Rubripes) Too High?.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Data Sources and Methods of Analysis.- 3. Results.- 4. Discussion.- The Estimation of Survival in Bird Populations By Recaptures or Sightings of Marked Individuals.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Methods.- 2.1 General Presentation.- 2.2 Cormack Model.- 2.3 Sandland-Kirkwood-Clobert Models.- 3. Applications.- 3.1 Fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis).- 3.2 Starling (Sturnus vulgaris).- 3.3 Coot (Fulica atra).- 4. Comparison Between Recapture Models: Swallow (Hirundo Rustica).- 5. Discussion.- Maximum Likelihood Methods for Investigating Reporting Rates of Rings on Hunter-Shot Birds.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Definitions and Notation.- 3. General Approach.- 4. Case Study: Analysis of Ring Reporting Rates for American Black Ducks.- 4.1 No Stratification of Recoveries.- 4.2 Geographic Variations in Reporting Rates.- 4.3 Temporal Variation in Reporting Rates.- 4.3.1 Direct recoveries.- 4.3.2 Direct (first year) and indirect (after first-year) recoveries.- 4.4 Geographic and Temporal Variation in Reporting Rates.- 5. Computing Alogorithm.- Examples of the Use of Glim to Analyse Capture-Recapture Studies.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Principles.- 2.1 The Data.- 2.2 The Parameters.- 2.3 The Program.- 2.4 Model Selection.- 3. Examples.- 4. Conclusion.- Age-Dependent Mortality Rates of Some Common British Birds.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Factors Determining Age Dependence in Survival.- 3. Structure of the Model and Description of the Data.- 4. The Fit of the Model to the Data.- 5. Discussion and Conclusions.- Estimation and Comparison of Functions of Daily Nest Survival Probabilities Using the Mayfield Method.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Parameter Estimation for the Simple Model.- 3. Modelling Differential Survival.- 4. Results.- Prior Knowledge and Ornithology.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Subjective Inference in General.- 3. Subjective Inference from Ringing Data.- 4. Conclusion.- Inherent Difficulties in Estimating Age-Specific Bird Survival Rates from Ring Recoveries.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Data.- 3. Prevailing Methods.- 3.1 The Ratio Method.- 3.2 Maximum Likelihood Method.- 3.3 Conditional Maximum Likelihood Method.- 4. Unsatisfactory Aspects Of The Prevailing Methods.- 4.1 A Demonstrative Example.- 4.2 An Additional Difficulty.- 5. Concluding Remarks.- The Effect of Age on Survival in the Canada Goose (Branta Canadensis) in Nottinghamshire.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Field Methods.- 3. Analytical Methods.- 4. Results and Discussion.- Estimation of Age-Specific Survival in Hen Harriers (Circus C. Cyaneus) in Orkney.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Resight data.- 3. Method.- 4. Application.- 4.1 Females.- 4.2 Males.- 4.3 Comparision of Sexes.- 4.4 Annual Variations.- 5. Test for Equal Resighting Rates.- 5.1 Method.- 5.2 Application.- 6. Conclusions.- Approximate Unbiased Estimation in the Multi-Sample Single Recapture Census.- 1. Introduction.- 2. General Model.- 3. Instantaneous Sampling.- Approximately Unbiased Variance Estimation for the Jolly-Seber Mark-Recapture Model : Population Size.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The J-S Model.- 3. Unbiased Estimation.- 4. Simulation.- 5. Discussion.- 6. General comments.- References.- Author Index.- Bird index (english names).- Bird Index (scientific names).