Simplicity, Inference and Modelling: Keeping It Sophisticatedly Simple

ISBN-13: 9780521121354 / Angielski / Miękka / 2009 / 316 str.

Arnold Zellner; Hugo A. Keuzenkamp; Michael McAleer

Opis

The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor. A problem with Ockham's Razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this monograph examines simplicity by asking six questions: What is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience?