Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response Opportunities: ENSO Applications in Bangladesh

ISBN-13: 9783031178238 / Angielski / Twarda / 2022 / 201 str.

MD Rashed Chowdhury

Opis

This book explores the feasibility of using El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts and early warning systems to prevent losses from floods and droughts in Bangladesh. Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is due to short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts—the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh— and disseminate these products through appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecasts, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. Therefore, the primary objective of the book is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. The book discusses issues related to the 5-stage Flood Forecasts, Warning, and Response System (FFWRS) and emphasizes the role of the seasonal ‘Climate Outlook Forum (COF)’ in Bangladesh. The book also identifies ways to improve forecasting and early warning systems by utilizing ENSO-based climate data and models, and discusses a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh.Several successful case examples of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts and early warning systems from other ENSO-sensitive regions have been documented. The primary audience includes academics and students, government policymakers, engineers, and business leaders.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface: Why ENSO-based seasonal forecasts are important in Bangladesh Acknowledgements

About the author

Chapter 1: Introduction—Seasonal Flood Potential in Bangladesh

1.1 The Importance of Seasonal Flood Forecasts in Bangladesh

1.2 What is a probabilistic seasonal forecast?

1.3 What is ENSO?

1.4 La Niña and Bangladesh floods?

1.5 What is the causal connection between La Niña and seasonal flooding in Bangladesh?

1.6 How helpful are the seasonal forecasts in Bangladesh?

1.7 Literature Review

1.8 Book Contents - Chapters

Chapter 2: Basin-wide Hydro-Meteorological Variability and Opportunity for Seasonal

Forecasts in Bangladesh

2.1 Introduction - Flood Hydrology

2.1.1 Rainfall patterns

2.1.2 Flood hydrology

2.1.3 Sources of floods

2.1.4 Causes of floods

2.1.5 Occurrence of floods

2.1.6 Flood frequency analysis

2.2 Hydro-Meteorological Variability: Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins

2.2.1 Data, Basic Indices, and Method

2.2.2 Findings

2.3 Conclusions

Chapter 3: History of Flood Forecasts and Early Warning in Bangladesh

3.1 Introduction—What is an Early Warning System?

3.2 History and Growth of EWS in Bangladesh

3.2.1 Indigenous EWS in Bangladesh

3.2.2 Advanced Flood Forecasting and EWS

3.3 The Role of the FFWC and Early Warning Systems in Bangladesh:

The Experience of the Catastrophic Flooding in 1998

3.4 Causes of 1998 Flood—La Niña and Rainfall

3.4.1 Water Level Rise in Chandpur

3.4.2 River Stage

3.5 Activities of the Flood Forecasting Center during 1998 Flood

3.5.1 Data Collection and Processing

3.5.2 Meteorological Forecasting and Boundary Estimation

3.6 Flood Forecasting by Numerical Modelling

3.6.1 MIKE-11 Flood Routing Model

3.6.2 Flood Status Mapping

3.7 Flood Warning Dissemination by Daily Bulletin

3.7.1 Comprehensive Flood Perspectives

3.8 Evaluation of Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh

3.8.1 Data Source and Methodology

3.8.2 Performance Evaluation of Boundary Estimates

3.8.3 Performance Evaluation of Flood Forecasting

3.8.4 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

3.8.5 Boundary Estimation

3.9 Scopes of Improvements

3.9.1 Precipitation Forecasts

3.9.2 Non-tidal Boundary Estimation

3.9.3 Tidal Boundary Estimation

3.9.4 Coastal Flood Forecasting

3.9.6 Warning Dissemination and Feedback Technique

3.10 Discussions and Recommendations

Chapter 4: Overview of Weather, ENSO, and Climate Scale

4.1 Introduction—The Weather and Climate Scale

4.2 What is ENSO and IOD

4.2.1 ENSO

4.2.2 Indian Ocean Dipole

4.3 ENSO is the main triggers of IOD

4.4 Future State of ENSO: El Niño Simulation from CMIP5 Models

4.4.1 Current limitations and improvement options for ENSO

4.4 Conclusions

Chapter 5: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Seasonal Flooding in Bangladesh

5.1. Introduction

5.2 Data and Basic Indices

5.3 ENSO and Atmospheric Circulation Pattern

5.4 Physical Mechanism for SST—Monsoon Links

5.5 ENSO—Rainfall Relation in the Greater GBM Basins

5.5.1 ENSO—Rainfall: Bangladesh

5.5.2 ENSO—Rainfall: Basinwide

5.6 ENSO and Features of River Hydrograph

5.7 ENSO—Seasonal Flooding Extent in Bangladesh

5.8 Comparison with other Previous Findings of Monsoon Rainfall Variability in Bangladesh and India

5.9 Summaries and Conclusion

Chapter 6: Seasonal Flood Potential in Bangladesh

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Data, Basic Indices, and Method

6.2.1 Observed Climate Fields of SST and Atmospheric Circulation Data

6.2.2 Global Climate Model (GCM) Precipitation Data from SST

6.2.3 Method: SST Indices—Five Wettest/Driest Years

6.3 Results: Variability and Predictability from the Tropical SST

6.3.1 Leading Principal Components (PCs) and SST Structure

6.3.2 Statistical Model

6.4 Results: Variability and Predictability from the GCM Precipitation

6.4.1 Leading Principal Components (PCs) and Precipitation Structure

6.4.2 Statistical Model

6.5 Summary of Findings

Chapter 7: Overview of Eastern, Mixed, and Central Pacific El Niño

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Impacts of Different Types of El Niño on the Seasonal Rainfall and Sea Level Variability in the USAPIs: An Example of Future ENSO Research Potential for Bangladesh

7.2.1 Seasonal Rainfall Variability

7.2.2 Seasonal Sea Level Variability

7.3 Conclusions

Chapter 8: Seasonal Sea Level Information and Flood Forecast Potential in Bangladesh

8.1. Introduction

8.2 Data and Research Methodology

8.2.1 Sea level data

8.2.2 Observed climate fields of SST and atmospheric circulation data

8.2.3 Methodology

8.3. Results and Discussions

8.3.1 Linear Correlation of Seasonal Averages of SSTs and Sea Level

8.3.2 EOF Analysis of SST and Sea level Records

8.3.3 CCA Model Forecast and Hindcast Skill

8.4 A Synopsis of Enhanced Trade Winds

8.5. Conclusions

Chapter 9: Consensus Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response in Bangladesh

9.1. Introduction

9.2 Conceptual Perspectives

9.3 Progress in Seasonal FFWRS

9.4 Consensus Seasonal Forecast in the USAPIs: The PEAC Model

9.4.1 Forecast Preparation

9.4.2 Interpretation and Stakeholders

9.4.3 Process of Dissemination

9.4.4 Response and Feedback

9.4.5 Review and Analysis

9.5 The SASCOF Regional Model

9.6 The SARCOF Regional Model

9.7 Seasonal Forecasts: Bangladesh Perspective

9.7.1 Stage 1: Forecast Preparation

9.7.2 Stage 2: Interpretation and Stakeholders

9.7.3 Stage 3: Process of Dissemination

9.7.4 Stage 4: Response

9.7.5 Stage 5: Review and Analysis

9.8 Conclusions

Chapter 10: ENSO Impacts, Applications, and Conclusions

10.1 An Overview of ENSO Impacts in Bangladesh

10.1.1 ENSO and variability of tropical cyclone

10.1.2 ENSO and King Tides

10.1.3 ENSO and forest fires

10.1.4 ENSO and human health in Bangladesh

10.1.5 ENSO and water and power crisis

10.1.6 ENSO and variability of lightning

10.1.7 Probability of new civil conflicts

10.2 ENSO Applications and Opportunities in Bangladesh

10.2.1 Seasonal flood forecasts and warning response opportunity

10.2.2 Total Weather Insurance for Agriculture Risk Reduction

10.3 Conclusions

O autorze

Md. Rashed Chowdhury – currently an adjunct professor affiliated with the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment (SSBE) at Arizona State University (USA) — is the former Principal Research Scientist of the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC) at the Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR) of the University of Hawaii. For the last 25 years, his activities focused on addressing water challenges surrounding emergency management and implementation activities related to climate variability and change, sea level rise, land-use planning and environmental resource management for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-sensitive countries/islands in the Asia-Pacific region, including Bangladesh, the Maldives, Japan, Hawaii, Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, and American Samoa. He has been responsible for the translation on the probable impacts of various seasonal climate products through local and international activities, and in the process he is actively involved in the development of adaptation plans regarding climate hazards management.