Scientific and technological forecasting : Organizational, methodological and applied issues

ISBN-13: 9786200788221 / Angielski

Hrachya Vardanyan

Opis

The first chapter of the book deals with the general characteristics of scientific and technical forecasting for military purposes. This is preceded by clarification of the essence of the concepts of "scientific foresight" and "forecast" to clarify the difference between them. This is due to the fact that the scientific literature often mixes these concepts. This chapter analyses the components of forecasting: methodology; information basis of forecasting; organizational structure of forecasting. The second chapter of the study proposes a methodology developed by the author to determine the effectiveness of scientific and technical forecasting based on the introduction and use of integral characteristics to obtain a generalized criterion of information efficiency of forecasting. The methodology deals only with the assessment of the information efficiency of forecasting, assuming that the information efficiency of forecasting can be determined by the value of forecast information about the future state and properties of the object of any nature to make the right decision in the present.