Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models

ISBN-13: 9781138065055 / Angielski / Twarda / 2018 / 292 str.

Alan Jones

Opis

This volume considers risk and uncertainty and how to model them, including the ubiquitous Monte Carlo Simulation. This book forms the backdrop for the guidance on Monte Carlo Simulation, and provides advice on the do’s and don’ts. It can also be used to test other assumptions in a more general modelling sense.

Spis treści

Foreword, 1 Introduction and Objectives, 1.1 Why write this book? Who might find it useful? Why Five Volumes?, 1.1.1 Why write this series? Who might find it useful?, 1.1.2 Why Five Volumes?, 1.2 Features you'll find in this book and others in this series, 1.2.1 Chapter Context, 1.2.2 The Lighter Side (humour), 1.2.3 Quotations, 1.2.4 Definitions, 1.2.5 Discussions and Explanations with a Mathematical Slant for Formula-philes, 1.2.6 Discussions and Explanations without a Mathematical Slant for Formula-phobes, 1.2.7 Caveat Augur, 1.2.8 Worked Examples, 1.2.9 Useful Microsoft Excel Functions and Facilities, 1.2.10 References to Authoritative Sources, 1.2.11 Chapter Reviews, 1.3 Overview of Chapters in this Volume, 1.4 Elsewhere in the 'Working Guide to Estimating & Forecasting' Series, 1.4.1 Volume I: Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling, 1.4.2 Volume II: Probability, Statistics and other Frightening Stuff, 1.4.3 Volume III: Best Fit Lines & Curves, and some Mathe-Magical Transformations, 1.4.4 Volume IV: Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves, 1.4.5 Volume V: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models, 1.5 Final Thoughts and Musings on this Volume and Series, References, , 2 Norden-Rayleigh Curves for Solution Development, 2.1 Norden-Rayleigh Curves: Who, What, Where, When and Why?, 2.1.1 Probability Density Function and Cumulative Distribution Function, 2.1.2 Truncation Options, 2.1.3 How does a Norden-Rayleigh Curve differ from the Rayleigh Distribution?, 2.1.4 Some Practical Limitations of the Norden-Rayleigh Curve, 2.2 Breaking the Norden-Rayleigh ‘Rules’, 2.2.1 Additional Objectives: Phased Development (or the ‘Camelling’), 2.2.2 Correcting an overly optimistic view of the problem complexity: The Square Rule, 2.2.3 Schedule Slippage due to Resource Ramp-up Delays: The Pro Rata Product Rule, 2.2.4 Schedule Slippage due to Premature Resource Reduction, 2.3 Beta Distribution: A Practical Alternative to Norden-Rayleigh, 2.3.1 PERT-Beta Distribution: a Viable Alternative to Norden-Rayleigh? 2.3.2 Resource Profiles with Norden-Rayleigh Curves and Beta Distribution PDFs, 2.4 Triangular Distribution: Another Alternative to Norden-Rayleigh, 2.5 Truncated Weibull Distributions and their Beta Equivalents, 2.5.1 Truncated Weibull Distributions for Solution Development, 2.5.2 General Beta Distributions for Solution Development, 2.6 Estimates to Completion with Norden-Rayleigh Curves, 2.6.1 Guess and Iterate Technique, 2.6.2 Norden-Rayleigh Curve Fitting with Microsoft Excel Solver, 2.6.3 Linear Transformation and Regression, 2.6.4 Exploiting Weibull Distribution's Double Log Linearisation Constraint, 2.6.5 Estimates to Completion - Review and Conclusion, 2.7 Chapter Review, References, , 3 Monte Carlo Simulation and Other Random Thoughts, 3.1 Monte Carlo Simulation: Who, What, Why, Where, When and How, 3.1.1 Origins of Monte Carlo Simulation: Myth and Mirth, 3.1.2 Relevance to Estimators and Planners, 3.1.3 Key Principle: Input Variables with an Uncertain Future, 3.1.4 Common Pitfalls to Avoid, 3.1.5 Is our Monte Carlo Output Normal?, 3.1.6 Monte Carlo Simulation: A Model of Accurate Imprecision, 3.1.7 What if we don't know what the true Input Distribution Functions are?, 3.2 Monte Carlo Simulation and Correlation, 3.2.1 Independent Random Uncertain Events - How Real is That?, 3.2.2 Modelling Semi-Independent Uncertain Events (Bees and Hedgehogs), 3.2.3 Chain-Linked Correlation Models, 3.2.4 Hub-Linked Correlation Models, 3.2.5 Using a Hub-Linked Model to Drive a Background Isometric Correlation, 3.2.6 Which Way Should We Go?, 3.2.7 A Word of Warning about Negative Correlation in Monte Carlo Simulation, 3.3 Modelling and Analysis of Risk Opportunity and Uncertainty, 3.3.1 Sorting the Wheat from the Chaff, 3.3.2 Modelling Risk Opportunity and Uncertainty in a Single Model, 3.3.3 Mitigating Risks, Realising Opportunities and Contingency Planning, 3.3.4 Getting our Risks, Opportunities and Uncertainties in a Tangle, 3.3.5 Dealing with High Probability Risks, 3.3.6 Beware of False Prophets: Dealing with Low Probability High Impact Risks, 3.3.7 Using Risk or Opportunity to Model Extreme Values of Uncertainty, 3.3.8 Modelling Probabilities of Occurrence, 3.3.9 Other Random Techniques for Evaluating Risk Opportunity and Uncertainty, 3.4 ROU Analysis: Choosing Appropriate Values with Confidence, 3.4.1 Monte Carlo Risk and Opportunity Analysis is Fundamentally Flawed!, 3.5 Chapter Review, References, , 4 Risk, Opportunity & Uncertainty: A Holistic Perspective, 4.1 Top-Down Approach to Risk Opportunity and Uncertainty, 4.1.1 Top-down Metrics, 4.1.2 Marching Army Technique: Cost-Schedule Related Variability, 4.1.3 Assumption Uplift Factors: Cost Variability Independent of Schedule Variability, 4.1.4 Lateral Shift Factors: Schedule Variability Independent of Cost Variability, 4.1.5 An Integrated Top-down Approach, 4.2 Bridging into the Unknown: Slipping and Sliding Technique, 4.3 Using an Estimate Maturity Assessment as a Guide to ROU Maturity, 4.4 Chapter Review, References, , 5 Factored Value Technique for Risks and Opportunities, 5.1 The Wrong Way, 5.2 A Slightly Better Way, 5.3 The Best Way, 5.4 Chapter Review, References, , 6 Introduction to Critical Path & Schedule Risk Analysis, 6.1 What is Critical Path Analysis?, 6.2 Finding a Critical Path Using Binary Activity Paths in Microsoft Excel, 6.3 Using Binary Paths to Find the Latest Start & Finish Times, and Float, 6.4 Using a Critical Path to Manage Cost and Schedule, 6.5 Modelling Variable Critical Paths Using Monte Carlo Simulation, 6.6 Chapter Review, References, , 7 Finally, After a Long Wait … Queueing Theory, 7.1 Types of Queues and Service Discipline, 7.2 Memoryless Queues, 7.3 Simple Single Channel Queues (M/M/1 and M/G/1), 7.3.1 Example of Queueing Theory in Action M/M/1 or M/G/1, 7.4 Multiple Channel Queues (M/M/c), 7.4.1 Example of Queueing Theory in Action M/M/c or M/G/c, 7.5 How Do We Spot a Poisson Process?, 7.6 When is Weibull Viable?, 7.7 Can we have a Poisson Process with an Increasing / Decreasing Trend?, 7.8 Chapter Review, References, Epilogue, , Glossary of Estimating Terms, Index

O autorze

Alan R. Jones is Principal Consultant at Estimata Limited, aconsultancy service specialising in Estimating Skills Training. He is a Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst (US) and Certified Cost Engineer (CCE) (UK). Prior to setting up his own business, he enjoyed a 40-year career in the UK aerospace and defence industry as an estimatorAlan is a Fellow of the Association of Cost Engineers and a member of the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association. Historically (some four decades ago), Alan was a graduate in Mathematics from Imperial College of Science and Technology in London, and was an MBA Prize-winner at the Henley Management College.