Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making

ISBN-13: 9780367398644 / Angielski / Miękka / 2019 / 336 str.

Glenn Koller

Opis

A follow-up to Koller's Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents a plain-English narrative that explores comprehensive risk/uncertainty analyses in manufacturing, security, law, investing, production sharing, scheduling, insurance, pricing, and more. Focusing on value, it outlines and discusses risk assessment models applicable to real business scenarios. The presentation of each model also includes computer code that encapsulates its logic along with direction on how to apply the model to other types of problems.

Spis treści

Introduction. Two Approaches to Solving Decision Trees-a Class-Action Suit Example. Terrorism Risk Models-Relative and Absolute Risk. Gathering Information Consistently in an Inconsistent World. New Manufacturing Facility- Business-Justification Model. Oil-Field-Development Investment-Opportunity Risk Model. Using Chance of Failure and Risk-Weighted values to Reflect the Effect of "Soft" Issues on the Value of an Opportunity. Production-Sharing Agreement Risk Model. Scheduling and Optimization Risk Model. Decision/Option-Selection Risk Model. Risk Process to Identify Business Drivers, Maximize Value, and Determine the Value of Potential Expenditures. Summary. Building a Consensus Model. Building a Contributing-Factor Diagram. Monte Carlo Analysis. Decisions and Distributions. Chance of Failure. Time Series Analysis and Dependence. Risk-Weighted Values and Sensitivity Analysis

O autorze

Koller, Glenn