Regional Economic Policy: Measurement of Its Effect

ISBN-13: 9789401084536 / Angielski / Miękka / 2011 / 272 str.

H. Folmer

Opis

Impact analysis of economic policy is a subject which is gaining in creasing interest in both theoretical and applied economic research. Two main reasons for the growing interest can be distinguished. First, the situation of the government's finances is making it more than ever necessary to assess critically the effects of the instruments used to pursue public policy goals. Secondly, because of the economic stagnation government will be increasingly appealed to for support. Impact analysis, however, is hampered by three major problems: methodological deficiencies, lack of econometric approaches which have been adapted to the specific conditions of this kind of analysis and data availability. The present book deals with these problems in the context of regional economic policy. However, the main findings are broadly applicable in various other fields. This book is primarily oriented towards those who have a practical interest. Therefore, attention is mostly paid to the practical aspects of the methodology and the measurements methods. Furthermore, the methodologi cal and econometric parts are supplemented by two extensive case studies. - Three people have contributed constructive criticisms and suggestions on some chapters of the book: Peter Nijkamp, Theo Dijkstra and Manfred Fischer. I am very grateful for their support. They, of course, share no blame for any deficiences in the present form of the book. I also gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Harry Barkema and Marja Schuring with the computations."

Spis treści

1. Introduction.- 1.1. The purpose of this study.- 1.2. Main causes of spatial inequality and justification of regional economic policy.- 1.3. Outline of the study.- I : Methodology.- 2. A Conceptual Framework.- 2.1. Introduction.- 2.2. Definition of regional economic policy.- 2.3. Policy evaluation and impact assessment.- 2.4. Classification of policy instruments.- 2.4.1. Control and influencing instruments.- 2.4.2. Some theories of regional economic development.- 2.4.3. Overview and classification of Dutch instruments.- 2.5. The causal context and the multi-effective nature of regional economic policy.- 2.5.1. The causal framework.- 2.5.2. The regional profile.- 2.5.3. Direct, indirect and n-th order effects.- 2.6. Interregional effects of regional economic policy.- 2.7. Latent variables.- 2.8. Conclusions.- 3. Overview and Methodological Aspects of Various Operational Measurement Approaches.- 3.1. Introduction.- 3.2. Representation of policy variables in a measurement model.- 3.3. Micro approaches.- 3.3.1. Controlled experimentation.- 3.3.2. Quasi-experimental and non-experimental research.- 3.4. Spatial approaches.- 3.4.1. Introduction.- 3.4.2. Approaches with explanatory variables of the policy type only ;.- 3.4.3. Single equation models with explanatory variables of the non-policy type only.- 3.4.4. Single equation models with both policy and non-policy variables as explanatory variables.- 3.4.5. Simultaneous equation models.- 3.4.5.1. General simultaneous equation models.- 3.4.5.2. Input output models.- 3.5. Instruments of regional economic policy and measurement approaches of their impacts.- 3.6. Conclusions.- II: Econometric Methods.- 4. Linear Structural Equation Models with Latent Variables.- 4.1. Introduction.- 4.2. The structure.- 4.2.1. The latent variables measurement models and the structural model.- 4.2.2. Submodels.- 4.2.3. The theoretical and the sample covariance matrices.- 4.3. Identification.- 4.4. Estimation of the model.- 4.5. Estimation of the residuals.- 4.6. Model judgement and model modification.- 4.6.1. Introduction.- 4.6.2. LISREL judgement statistics.- 4.6.3. Diagnostic checking.- 4.6.4. Hypothesis testing.- 4.7. Conclusions.- 5. Spatio-Temporal Lisrel Models.- 5.1. Introduction.- 5.2. The nature of spatio-temporal correlation.- 5.2.1. Introduction.- 5.2.2. Spatial correlation.- 5.2.3. The structure of the spatio-temporal LISREL model.- 5.3. Detection of spatio-temporal correlation.- 5.3.1. Measures of spatial correlation.- 5.3.2. Detection of omitted spatial correlation.- 5.3.3. Detection of temporal autocorrelation.- 5.4. Specification of spatio-temporal LISREL models.- 5.4.1. LISREL specifications for spatial correlation.- 5.4.1.1. Introduction.- 5.4.1.2. LISREL specifications for ommitted spatial correlation.- 5.4.1.3. Transformations for residual spatial correlation.- 5.4.2. LISREL specifications for temporal autocorrelation.- 5.5. Conclusions.- 6. The Spatio-Temporal Lisrel Impact Model.- 6.1. Introduction.- 6.2. The structure of a spatio-temporal LISREL measurement model.- 6.2.1. Basic requirements of a measurement model.- 6.2.2. The formal LISREL impact model.- 6.3 Point estimators of effects of economic policy.- 6.3.1. Introduction.- 6.3.2. Effects of latent endogenous variables on each other.- 6.3.3. Effects of latent endogenous variables on observable endogenous variables.- 6.3.4. Effects of exogenous latent variables on endogenous latent variables.- 6.3.5. Effects of exogenous latent variables on observable endogenous variables.- 6.3.6. The sum of effects of policy packages over several periods.- 6.3.7. Effects of endogenous and exogenous observable variables on endogenous observable variables.- 6.4. Confidence intervals.- 6.4.1. Introduction.- 6.4.2. Direct effects.- 6.4.3. Indirect effects.- 6.5. Conclusions and summary of the main features of a spatio-temporal LISREL measurement model.- 7. Two-Stage Time Series Analysis.- 7.1. Introduction.- 7.2 Some defintions for times series modelling.- 7.3 The intraregional measurement model.- 7.3.1. Introduction.- 7.3.2. The general class of SARIMA models.- 7.3.3. A general class of intervention models.- 7.4 Fitting the intraregional measurement model.- 7.4.1. The stage of model indentification.- 7.4.1.1. The pre-intervention model.- 7.4.1.1.1. The period.- 7.1.1.1.2. Degrees of differencing.- 7.1.1.1.3. Model order.- 7.1.1.2. The intervention model.- 7.1.1.2.1. Single interventions.- 7.1.1.2.2. Repeated pulse interventions.- 7.1.2. The stage of estimating the model parameters,.- 7.1.3. The stage of diagnostic checking.- 7.5. The interregional model.- 7.6. Conclusions.- 8. The Bootstrap, the Jackknife and Model Selection.- 8.1. Introduction.- 8.2. The general idea and main characteristics of the bootstrap.- 8.2.1. Univariate situations.- 8.2.2. Multivariate situations.- 8.3. The jackknife.- 8.4. Model selection.- 8.5. Conclusions.- III : Case Studies.- 9. Effects of Regional Industrializations Policy.- 9.1. Introduction.- 9.2. History and main features of the investment premiums and fiscal accelerated depreciation arrangements.- 9.3. Overview of additional instruments of Dutch regional industrialization policy.- 9.4. The conceptual measurement model.- 9.4.1. General structure.- 9.4.2. Formal representation.- 9.5. The empirical measurement model.- 9.5.1. Introduction.- 9.5.2. Spatial correlation.- 9.5.3. The main estimation results.- 9.6. Conclusions.- Appendix 9.I The Dutch Provinces.- Appendix 9.II Percentages for investment premiums (IP) and fiscal accelerated depreciations (FA), 1973–1976.- Appendix 9.III Matrix of orders of contiguity of the Dutch provinces.- Appendix 9.IV Sources of the variables of model (9.9)-(9.15).- Appendix 9.V A priori structure of the matrices ??,?? and ?.- Appendix 9.VI Coefficients of kurtosis and skewness of the endogenous observable variables of model (9.9)-(9.15).- Appendix 9.VII Moran coefficients of spatial auto- and crosscorrelations of the relevant observables of model (9.9)-(9.7).- Appendix 9.VIII The matrices $${\hat \odot _\varepsilon }$$ and $${\rm{\hat \psi }}$$ of model (9.9)-(9.15).- 10. Effects of Extra Employment Programs.- 10.1. Introduction.- 10.2 Identification, estimation and checking of the pre-intervention model.- 10.3. The intervention model.- 10.4 Conclusions.- Appendix 10.I Number of oficially unemployed building trade workers in the sector of public infrastructure in Groningen, 1965–1971..- Appendix 10.11 Expenditures on extra employment programs in Groninger 1972–1976..- Epilogue.- 11. Some Issues for Further Research.- 11.1 Introduction.- 11.2 Inclusion of rational expectations in the measurement model.- 11.3 Towards more comprehensive froms of impact assessment and policy evaluation.- References.