Rational Decision Making

ISBN-13: 9783642028502 / Angielski / Miękka / 2010 / 447 str.

Franz Eisenfuhr;Martin Weber;Thomas Langer

Opis

This book is designed to support you in making difficult decisions in a more - tional way. Based on an established theoretical foundation, it shows that simple requirements concerning rational behavior lead to a general calculus of determ- ing optimal decision alternatives; the book then goes on to present methods and instruments useful for the practical implementation of these concepts. Psychological research has uncovered a multitude of systematic cognitive - ases associated with the intuitive decision process, especially concerning the f- mation of preferences and subjective probability judgments for uncertain events. These developments have elevated prescriptive decision theory to the status of an important discipline with increasingly strong practical ties - nowadays, even m- agers are concerned with decision trees, probability distributions and risk profiles. There is also a wide range of software available on the market to aid users with the use of the instruments. We would like to convince you, by help of the many pr- tical questions and case studies included with most chapters, that the material c- ered is not purely an academic diet but also of high practical nutritional value. The mindset suggested by the theory as an approach for decision problems will surely be of much use to you both in your private and professional life, even if you do not apply the presented methods of decision making support in every little - tail.

Spis treści

What decision analysis is about.- Structuring the decision problem.- Generating objectives and hierarchies.- Generating and preselecting alternatives.- Decision making under certainty with one objective.- Decision making under certainty and with multiple objectives: multiattribute value functions.- The generation of probabilities.- Simulation of an objective variable’s probability distribution.- Decisions under risk and one objective.- Decision under risk: incomplete information and multiple objectives.- Time preferences under certain expectations.- Group decisions.- Descriptive aspects of decision making.

O autorze

Franz Eisenführ Jahrgang 1936. Studium der Volkswirtschaftslehre in Kiel, Berlin und München. Diplom-Volkswirt und Dr. sc. pol. in Kiel. Professor für Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre an der RWTH Aachen 1974 bis 1991, an der Universität zu Köln 1991 bis 2002. Arbeitsgebiete: Entscheidungstheorie, Investitionstheorie. Martin Weber Jahrgang 1952. Studium der Mathematik und Betriebswirtschaftslehre in Mainz und Aachen. Promotion zum Dr. rer. pol. 1981, Habilitation 1988. Professor für Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre, Finanzwirtschaft, insb. Bankbetriebslehre an der Universität Mannheim. Arbeitsgebiete: Entscheidungsforschung, Bankbetriebslehre und Kapitalmarktforschung. Thomas Langer Jahrgang 1966. Studium der Mathematik in Kiel und Lawrence, Kansas. Promotion zum Dr. rer. pol. 1998 und Habilitation 2004, jeweils in Mannheim. Seit 2004 Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Finanzierung an der Westfälischen Wilhelms-Universität Münster. Arbeitsgebiete: Behavioral Finance, Experimentelle Wirtschaftsforschung, Entscheidungsanalyse.

Blurb

This textbook conveys methods that can improve decision making processes in various fields such as economics, politics, and medicine as well as in personal life. Areas of focus are decision making under conflicting objectives, decision making under risk and uncertainty, decision making with incomplete information about individual preferences or probabilities, and the consideration of time preferences. Special emphasis is placed on the procedures` and concepts`applicability. Explicit sample applications show the methods` benefit for a wide area of decision making problems. Exercises from daily life make it easy for the reader to understand the key insights from decision analysis.