Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods

ISBN-13: 9780521773201 / Angielski / Twarda / 2001 / 414 str.

Tim Bedford

Opis

Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations in situations where classical statistical analysis is difficult or impossible. This book discusses the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgment and uncertainty propagation.

Recenzje

'… a text of enormous coverage.' The Mathematical Gazette

Spis treści

Part I. Introduction: 1. Probabilistic risk analysis; Part II. Theoretical Issues and Background: 2. What is uncertainty?; 3. Probabilistic methods; 4. Statistical inference; 5. Weibull analysis; Part II. System Analysis and Quantification: 6. Fault and event trees; 7. Fault trees - analysis; 8. Dependent failures; 9. Reliability data bases; 10. Expert opinion; 11. Human reliability; 12. Software reliability; Part IV. Uncertainty Modeling and Risk Measurement: 13. Decision theory; 14. Influence diagrams and belief nets; 15. Project risk management; 16. Probabilistic inversion; 17. Uncertainty analysis; 18. Risk measurement and regulation; Bibliography; Index.