Preparing for Peak Oil in South Africa: An Integrated Case Study

ISBN-13: 9781461495178 / Angielski / Miękka / 2013 / 123 str.

Jeremy J. Wakeford

Opis

Oil is the lifeblood of modern industrial economies. Petroleum powers virtually all motorized transport, which in turn enables most economic activities and provides mobility for citizens. But oil is a finite resource that is steadily depleting. In the past decade, the phenomenon of global peak oil - the fact that annual world oil production must at some point reach a maximum and then decline - has emerged as one of the twenty-first century's greatest challenges. South Africa imports over two-thirds of its petroleum fuels, and history has shown that oil price shocks generally translate into a weakening currency, rising consumer prices, increasing joblessness and a slow-down in economic activity. This book examines the implications of peak oil for socioeconomic welfare in South Africa and proposes a wide range of strategies and policies for mitigating and adapting to the likely impacts. It contains a wealth of data in tables and figures that illustrate South Africa's oil dependencies and vulnerabilities to oil shocks. The material is presented from a systems perspective and is organized in key thematic areas including energy, transport, agriculture, macro-economy and society. The study highlights the risks, uncertainties and difficult choices South Africa faces if it is to tackle its oil addiction, and thereby serves as an example for researchers, planners and policy-makers in the developing world who will sooner or later confront similar challenges. This case study brings a fresh southern perspective to an issue of global importance, and shows how the era of flattening and then declining global oil supplies may be a pivotal period in which either the project of industrialization progressively runs out of steam, or societies are able to undertake a proactive transition to a more sustainable future.

Spis treści

Preface
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms
Units of Measurement
List of Figures
List of Tables

1. Introduction: The End of Cheap Oil and its Implications for South Africa
1.1 Peak oil in a nutshell
1.2 Possible global consequences
1.3 Mind the policy gap
1.4 South Africa: a microcosm of the world
1.5 Objectives of this book

2. Energy
2.1 Oil dependence of the energy system
2.2 Likely impact of oil shocks
2.3 Weaning off oil: energy substitutes and conservation
2.4 Conclusion

3. Transport
3.1 Oil dependence of the transport system
3.2 Vulnerabilities and likely impact of oil shocks on the transport system
3.3 Mitigating peak oil in the transport sector
3.4 Conclusion

4. Agriculture
4.1 Oil dependence of agriculture
4.2 Impact of oil shocks on agriculture
4.3 Mitigating peak oil: agroecological farming and relocalisation
4.4 Conclusion

5. Economy
5.1 Oil dependence of the economy
5.2 Macroeconomic vulnerabilities
5.3 Economic impact of oil shocks
5.4 Mitigating the economic impacts of peak oil
5.5 Conclusion

6. Society
6.1 Social vulnerabilities
6.2 Possible social impacts of peak oil
6.3 Boosting societal resilience and cohesion
6.4 Conclusion

7. Can We Transition to Sustainability?
7.1 Vision of a sustainable post-oil future
7.2 A transition action plan
7.3 Barriers and risks to implementation
7.4 Beyond South Africa

References
Index