Politics and Uncertainty: Theory, Models and Applications

ISBN-13: 9780521581219 / Angielski / Twarda / 1998 / 364 str.

Boulder) Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (University of Colorado

Opis

Uncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics, affecting all important issues of governance and policy. Rather than treating the uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically-knowable phenomenon. The author shows how probability and mathematical modeling can play a central role in understanding a range of complex and fundamental issues in both domestic and international politics.

Recenzje

"Claudio Cioffi-Revilla ranks high among political theorists who advise the use of mathematics to make political science more precise and scientific. Politics and Uncertainty couples politics with randomness, from which it follows that mathematical models can make what is improbable predictable." Bertil L. Hanson, Perspectives on Political Science

Spis treści

Part I. Foundations: 1. Introduction; Part II. Macropolitics: 2. Behavior of political variables; 3. General macropolitical principles; 4. Special macropolitical principles; Part III. Micropolitics: 5. Occurrence of political events; 6. General Micropolitical principles; 7. Special micropolitical principles; Part IV. Conclusions: 8. Synthesis.