Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics

ISBN-13: 9780199949229 / Angielski / Twarda / 2011 / 344 str.

Jack A. Goldstone; Eric P. Kaufmann; Monica Duffy Toft

Opis

The field of political demography - the politics of population change - is dramatically underrepresented in political science. At a time when demographic changes - aging in the rich world, youth bulges in the developing world, ethnic and religious shifts, migration, and urbanization - are waxing as never before, this neglect is especially glaring and starkly contrasts with the enormous interest coming from policymakers and the media.

"Ten years ago, demography] was hardly on the radar screen," remarks Richard Jackson and Neil Howe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, two contributors to this volume. "Today," they continue, "it dominates almost any discussion of America's long-term fiscal, economic, or foreign-policy direction."

Demography is the most predictable of the social sciences: children born in the last five years will be the new workers, voters, soldiers, and potential insurgents of 2025 and the political elites of the 2050s. Whether in the West or the developing world, political scientists urgently need to understand the tectonics of demography in order to grasp the full context of today's political developments. This book begins to fill the gap from a global and historical perspective and with the hope that scholars and policymakers will take its insights on board to develop enlightened policies for our collective future.

Recenzje

Political Demography" is a collection of essays that shows some of the results of the new research in more detail. A chapter by Mark Haas of Duquesne University in Pittsburgh argues that demographic change will consolidate America's strategic position because all other leading nations have such dire demographic trends. China's one-child policy means there is a shortage of women of child-bearing age. As a result, between now and 2050 the number of men in China aged 20 to 25 (ie, of prime military recruiting age) will halve. Similarly, points out Eric Kaufmann, in many countries, fundamentalist religious groups have fertility rates two or three times higher than the societies in which they live. Israel is a good example. Over time, this will alter the balance of power in those countries.

O autorze

Jack A. Goldstone is the Hazel Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University and received his Ph.D. from Harvard University. He has won major prizes from the American Sociological Association and the Historical Society for his research on revolutions, population, and political conflict. His 2010 essay in Foreign Affairs, "The New Population Bomb" has received world-wide attention. A Phi Beta Kappa visiting lecturer, Goldstone has authored or edited ten books and published over one hundred articles in books and scholarly journals. His latest books are Why Europe? The Rise of the West 1500-1850 (2008) and Understanding Revolutions (forthcoming). Eric P. Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at Birkbeck College, University of London. He is the author of Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century (2010), The Rise and Fall of Anglo-America (2004), and three other books. He has written on religion and demography for Newsweek International, Foreign Policy, and Prospect magazines. Monica Duffy Toft is Associate Professor of Public Policy and Director of the Initiative on Religion in International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Her current research examines the role of nationalism, religion, and rationality in relation to political violence. She is the author of The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory (2003), Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars (2010), and God's Century (2011).