Our Threatened Climate: Ways of Averting the Co2 Problem Through Rational Energy Use

ISBN-13: 9789027716804 / Angielski / Twarda / 1983 / 369 str.

Wilfrid Bach; W. Bach; Jill Jdger

Opis

In this book the author has succeeded in presenting the many facets of the globel problems and hazards for our climate and thei r i nterdi scip l inary aspects, as we II as maki ng these under- standable for the non-specialist. In doing this, the author has not restricted himself to an analysis of the difficult problems but has indicated the necessity and the possibilities for ratio- na l so lutions. The book, therefore, can be a va lueb le deci si on- aid for all those who directly or indirectly are in positions of responsibi lity at various levels of administration or in industry end busi ness. We ll-timed precauti onary measures agai nst a g loba l deteri o- ration of cLimate are not only necessary for reasons of environ- mental protection. They are also an economical end political necessity. The measures include the reduction of the combustion of fossi l fue ls, a more rati one l energy uti l ization, as we II as the establishment of a global equilibrium between forest loss and reforestati on. The Federal German Government takes these potential anthro- pogenic climate changes very seriously. In order to obtein better scientific information, the Federal Government has ini- ti ated an i nterdi sci p l i nary nati one l Climate Programme. At the same time, the Federal Republic of Germany supports the relevant activities within the frame of international cooperation.

Spis treści

Executive Summary.- I. Introduction.- II. Climate and Climatic Change.- 1. History of the Earth’s Climate.- 2. Climate System.- 2.1 Radiation Budget of the Earth-Atmosphere System.- 2.2 Anthropogenic Influence on the Natural Radiation Budget.- 2.3 Causes of Climatic Change and Possibilities for Early Detection.- 3. Climate Models and Prediction.- 3.1 Simple Climate Models.- 3.2 Energy Balance Models.- 3.3 Zonally Averaged Models.- 3.4 Stochastic Models.- 3.5 General Circulation Models.- 3.6 Climatic Predictability.- 4. Climate Research Programme.- III. Sociopolitical Aspects of the CO2/Climate Problem.- 1. Population Growth.- 1.1 Past Growth.- 1.2 Future Growth.- 2. Settlement Patterns.- 2.1 Urbanisation in Industrialised Countries.- 2.2 Urbanisation in Developing Countries.- 3. Economic Development.- 4. Availability of Fossil Fuels.- 4.1 Coal.- 4.2 Oil.- 4.3 Natural Gas.- 5. Future Energy Use.- 5.1 Energy Amount and Mix.- 5.2 Inequities in Energy Use.- 5.3 Market Penetration Times.- 5.4 Capital Requirements.- 6. Degradation of Forest and Soil.- 6.1 Deforestation.- 6.2 Loss of Soil.- IV. Influence of Society on Climate.- 1. Climatic Effects of CO2.- 1.1 The CO2/Climate Problem.- 1.2 The Natural Carbon Cycle.- 1.3 Evidence of Carbon Cycle Perturbation.- 1.3.1 Observed CO2 Increase in the Atmosphere.- 1.3.2 CO2 Monitoring.- 1.4 Causes of Perturbation.- 1.4.1 Role of the Conventional Fossil Fuels.- 1.4.2 Role of the Unconventional Fossil Fuels.- 1.4.3 Role of the Biosphere.- 1.4.4 Role of the Ocean.- 1.4.5 Carbon Budget.- 1.5 Assessment of Past CO2 Concentration.- 1.5.1 Indirect Methods: Analysis of Tree Rings.- 1.5.2 Direct Methods: Analysis of Ice Core Samples.- 1.6 Assessment of Future CO2 Concentration.- 1.6.1 Carbon Cycle Models.- 1.6.2 Future Atmospheric CO2 Content.- 1.7 Climate Response Due to a CO2 Increase.- 1.7.1 Equilibrium Response Experiments.- 1.7.2 Transient Response Studies.- 1.7.3 Critical Comparison of Model Results.- 2. Climatic Effects of other Anthropogenic Trace Gases.- 2.1 Production and Concentration.- 2.2 Climate-Chemistry Interactions.- 2.3 Assessment of Climatic Effects.- 3. Climatic Effects of Aerosols.- 3.1 Sources, Emissions, Concentrations.- 3.2 Climatic Effects.- 4. Climatic Effects of Land Use Changes.- 4.1 Overgrazing — Desertification — Deforestation.- 4.2 Urbanisation and Industrialisation.- 4.3 Energy Conversion and Use.- 4.4 Water Engineering Projects.- 5. Climatic Effects of Waste Heat.- 5.1 Natural and Anthropogenic Energy Fluxes.- 5.2 Climatic Effects of Heat Emissions.- 5.3 Possibilities for Waste Heat Reduction.- 6. Assessment of Overall Effects - Critical Threshold Values —Prospects.- 6.1 Individual Climate Factors and the Greenhouse Effect.- 6.2 Combined Greenhouse Effect and Critical Threshold Values for the CO2 and Temperature Increase.- 6.3 Outlook.- V. Impacts of Climate Change on Society.- 1. Climate Impact Programmes.- 1.1 Nature and Methods of Impact Studies.- 1.2 Climate Scenarios.- 1.3 Socioeconomic Scenarios.- 2. Ecosystems.- 2.1 Influence of Mankind on the Biomes.- 2.2 Response of the Biomes to Climate Changes.- 3. Energy Use.- 3.1 Climate and Energy Demand.- 3.2 Climate and Energy Supply.- 3.3 Climate and Energy Costs.- 4. Food Security.- 4.1 Climate and the World Food Situation.- 4.2 Climate and Harvest Yields.- 4.3 Climate and Pest Management.- 4.4 CO2 Fertilization and Plant Productivity.- 4.5 Learning from Past Experience.- 5. Water Resources.- 5.1 Water Reserves and Water Demand.- 5.2 Water Availability.- 5.3 Global Water Problems.- 6. Fisheries.- 7. Population and Settlement.- 7.1 Examples from the Past: Decline of Civilisations — Migrations — Abandonments — Climate as a Causal Factor?.- 7.2 Possible Scenarios for the Future: Partial Disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet — Rise of Sea Level — Impact on Coastal Regions; An Ice-free Arctic Ocean — Shift of Agroclimatic Zones.- 8. Health, Disease and Welfare.- 8.1 Climate and Comfort.- 8.2 Climate and Disease.- 8.3 Climate Change and Welfare.- 9. Recreation.- VI. Strategies for Averting a CO2/Climate Problem.- 1. The Scope of Alternatives and Concepts for Action.- 2. Technical Fixes.- 2.1 CO2 Removal.- 2.2 CO2 Storage.- 2.3 CO2 Conversion to Useful Products.- 2.4 Albedo Modification.- 3. Biological Methods.- 3.1 CO2 Storage in Land Plants.- 3.2 CO2Storage in Water Plants.- 3.3 CO2 Storage in Soil Humus.- 4. Energy Saving Through Better Energy Use.- 4.1 Future Energy Use.- 4.2 Some Selected Studies of Rational Energy Use.- 4.2.1 German Studies.- 4.2.2 European Studies.- 4.2.3 US Studies.- 4.3 Efficient Energy Use in Industrialized and Developing Countries.- 5. Introduction of Renewable Energy Resources.- 5.1 Substitution of Non-Renewable by Renewable Energy Sources.- 5.2 Global Potential of Renewable Energy Sources.- 6. Effects of Various Energy Strategies.- 6.1 Characteristics of Selected Scenarios.- 6.1.1 Synthetic Fuel Production Scenario.- 6.1.2 IIAS A Scenarios.- 6.1.3 “Zero Growth” Scenario.- 6.1.4 Efficiency Scenario.- 6.2 Effects of Various Energy Strategies on CO2 and Temperature Changes.- 6.2.1 Synthetic Fuel Strategy.- 6.2.2 Pure Fossil Fuel Strategy.- 6.2.3 Spectrum of Various Energy Strategies.- 7. Flanking Measures.- 8. Decision Aids.- VII. Opportunities for the Future.- 1. The Old Credence in Progress — The New Credibility.- 2. Man: Shaping his Own Future?.- 3. Prospects: Extrapolating Old Trends.- 3.1 Growth.- 3.2 North-South Conflict.- 4. Prospects: Shifting Emphases.- 4.1 Reorientation.- 4.2 Using Available Technological Know-How.- 4.2.1 Cogeneration.- 4.2.2 Combined-Heat-and-Power Plants.- 4.2.3 Neighbourhood Cogeneration Systems.- 4.2.4 Fluidised-Bed Combustion.- 4.2.5 Central Station District Heating.- 4.2.6 Heat Pumps.- 4.3 Examples of Product Innovation.- 4.3.1 Insulation.- 4.3.2 Energy-Saving Light Bulbs.- 4.3.3. Fuel Economy of Light Vehicles.- 4.3.4 Feedstock Uses of Carbon.- 4.3.5 Microelectronics.- 4.4 Removal of Institutional Barriers.- 5. Ways out of the CO2/Climate Threat.- Further Reading.- Appendices.- Author Index.