On the Use of Input-Output Models for Regional Planning

ISBN-13: 9789020706260 / Angielski / Miękka / 1976 / 188 str.

William A. Schaffer; W. a. Schaffer

Opis

This book attempts to show, in a style acceptable to both academics and hurried planning executives, how simple analytic tools may be used to bridge the substantial gap between producing an input-output table and using one. In pursuing this goal, we eschew all discussions of complex programming models, for example, and concentrate on, above all, interpretation of the transactions table itself, on such common tools as multipliers, impact analysis, projections models, and self-sufficiency analysis, and on a few innovations such as income-per-employee indices, development simulators, and market analysis routines. Our primary purpose has been to show how planners, both private and public, can use regional input-output analysis quickly and to their advantage. The Georgia Interindustry Study was sponsored by the Office of Planning and Budget and the Department of Industry and Trade of the State of Georgia; their support is gratefully acknowledged. The fmal study report, of which this book represents a substantial revision, benefited enormously from the support and incisive criticisms of Dr. William W. Nash, then with the Office of Planning and Bud~t; his efforts are warmly appreciated. Many other officials in Georgia government contributed to this study, including: Louis Schneider and Kenneth P. Johnson in the' Office of PlaJ}ning and Budget; James O. Bohanan, James Butler, George Rogers, and H.W. Wiley in the Department of Industry and Trade; Joe Woodall and Corine Cross in the Department of Labor; William M. Nixon in the Department of Audits; and J .B.

Spis treści

1. Introduction.- 1.1 Purpose.- 1.2 Significance of the Georgia Economic Model.- 1.3 Organization of this book.- 2. The Logic of Input-Output Models.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 The state transactions table.- 2.3 The rationale for a model: analysis vs. description.- 2.4 Preparing the transactions table: closing with respect to households.- 2.5 The economic model.- 2.5.1 Identities: the transactions table.- 2.5.2 Technical conditions: the direct-requirements table.- 2.5.3 Equilibrium condition: supply equals demand.- 2.5.4 Solution to the systems: the total-requirements table.- 2.5.5 Summary and transition.- 2.6 Economic change in input-output models.- 2.6.1 Causes vs. consequences of change.- 2.6.2 Structural change.- 2.6.3 Changes in final demand.- 3. Constructing the Transactions Table.- 3.1 General approach.- 3.2 Local- and primary-data sources.- 3.3 Secondary-data sources.- 3.3.1 The national input-output table as an initial data base.- 3.3.2 Problems in using the national table.- 3.3.3 Adjusting for price changes.- 3.4 The estimating procedure.- 3.4.1 A schematic review of available data.- 3.4.2 The state technology matrix.- 3.4.3 Estimating regional trade patterns.- 4. Input-Output Relations in the Georgia Economy.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Final demand.- 4.2.1 Exporting industries.- 4.2.2 The economic base of Georgia.- 4.2.3 Local final demand.- 4.3 Final payments.- 4.3.1 Importing industries.- 4.3.2 Imported products.- 4.3.3 Household payments.- 4.4 Interindustry transactions.- 4.5 Income and product accounts for Georgia, 1970.- 4.6 Summary.- 5. Economic Multipliers for Georgia Industries.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 The multiplier concept.- 5.2.1 A general discussion.- 5.2.2 Mathematical formulations.- 5.3 Output and employment multipliers.- 5.4 Household-income multipliers.- 5.5 Government-income multipliers.- 5.6 Industry contributions to the Georgia economy.- 6. Economic Projections.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 Types of projections.- 6.3 The projection model.- 6.3.1 Review of basic techniques.- 6.3.2 Construction of the model.- 6.3.3 Basic assumptions.- 6.4 Baseline projections of the Georgia economy, 1980.- 6.4.1 Estimates of growth in exogenous demands and productivity.- 6.4.2 The aggregate projections.- 6.4.3 Industry projections.- 6.4.4 Allocation of employment projections to trade regions.- 7. Economic Intelligence.- 7.1 The strategy of development and input-output analysis.- 7.2 A self-sufficiency analysis.- 7.3 Income-per-employee index.- 7.4 Synthesis.- 7.A Mathematical appendix on skyline charts.- 8. Impact Analysis.- 8.1 Types of short-run changes.- 8.2 Trade-pattern analysis.- 8.3 Development simulators.- 8.3.1 Introduction.- 8.3.2 New-plant simulator.- 8.3.3 New-industry simulator.- 8.4 Analysis of public projects: a development highway.- 9. A Market Information System for Georgia.- 9.1 The input-output table as a market information system.- 9.2 A sample market analysis.- 9.3 Sources of data and computations for market analyses.- 9.4 Summary.- 10. Conclusions and Extensions.- 10.1 Study summary.- 10.1.1 Empirical results.- 10.1.2 Analytic results.- 10.2 Extensions of the basic regional model.- 10.2.1 An area model system.- 10.2.2 An extended projection model.- 10.2.3 An economic-ecologic system.- 10.3 Conclusion.- Appendices.- A. Income and Product Accounts for Georgia, 1970.- B. Projections of Employment Growth in Georgia: A Shift and Share Analysis (by Charles F. Floyd).- B.1 Introduction.- B.2 Shift and share methodology.- B.2.1 National growth component.- B.2.2 Industrial mix component.- B.2.3 Regional share component.- B.2.4 Net relative change.- B.3 Projection methodology.- B.4 An application of shift and share analysis: Georgia employment growth, 1950–1980.- C. Tables.- Selected References.