Nuclear Weapons Proliferation in the Next Decade

ISBN-13: 9780415443227 / Angielski / Twarda / 2007 / 236 str.

Opis

The intensification of the Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises has created new fears that deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East, Northeast Asia, and other regions will lead additional countries to seek their own nuclear arsenals in the years to come. This special issue examines the factors that are likely to shape nuclear weapons proliferation over the next decade. The internationally recognized authors of this issue, many of whom are prominent scholars and others of whom have held influential governmental positions with responsibility for countering nuclear proliferation, bring to light the conditions and events that might drive new countries to pursue nuclear weapons; the indicators and cautionary signs that can provide early warning that a country is interested in building nuclear bombs; and the policy and military measures that can be adopted to prevent or at least dissuade new proliferators. The introductory chapter develops a novel analytical approach focusing on the role of nuclear myths and mythmakers and the subsequent chapters draw on this approach to help analysts better understand and policy makers better manage nuclear proliferation over the next ten years.

Spis treści

Section 1: Insights from the Past: Theory, Intelligence, and Policy  1. 'Nuclear Proliferation over the Next Decade: Causes, Warning Signs, and Policy Responses'  2. 'Theories of Nuclear Proliferation: The State of the Field'  3. 'Anticipating Nuclear Proliferation: Insights from the Past'  4. 'Countering Proliferation: A Baker’s Dozen Policy Insights from Past Wins, Losses, and Draws'  5. 'Identifying Nuclear Aspirants and their Pathways to the Bomb'  Section 2: Past Cases of Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear Reversal  6. 'Nuclear Proliferation Motivations: Lessons from Pakistan'  7. 'South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Policies'  8. 'Lessons Learned from Iran’s Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons'  9. 'Nuclear U-Turns: Learning from South Korean and Taiwanese Rollback'  10. 'Egypt’s Nuclear Weapons Program: Lessons Learned'  Section 3: Future Nuclear Proliferation Risks  11. 'Nuclear Proliferation in Europe: Could It Still Happen?  12. 'The Future of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East'  13. 'Future Nuclear Proliferation Scenarios in Northeast Asia'  14. 'Prospects for Nuclear Proliferation in Southeast Asia, 2006-2016'  15. 'Assessing Potential Nuclear Proliferation Networks in Latin America: 2006-2016'  Section 3: New Dynamics in the Proliferation Environment  16. 'The Nuclear Energy Market and the Nonproliferation Regime' 17. 'Peering into the Abyss: Non-State Actors and the 2016 Proliferation Environment'

O autorze

Peter R. Lavoy is the National Intelligence Officer for South Asia in the U.S. National Intelligence Council. This book was prepared when he was Director of the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School.