Most Honourable Remembrance: The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes

ISBN-13: 9780387004990 / Angielski / Twarda / 2003 / 670 str.

Andrew I. Dale

Opis

I ?nd it impossible to write a preface to this work, without discovering a little of the enthusiasm which I have contracted from an attention to it. Joseph Priestley. The History and Present State of Electricity. It is generally considered bad form in writing, unless on matters autob- graphic, tomakeunbridleduseoftheperpendicularpronoun. Thereaderof the present book, however, may well wonder why one would want to study 1 the life and works of Thomas Bayes, this strangely neglected topic, and it is only by a reluctant use of the ?rst person singular on the part of the author that this legitimate question can be answered. It was in the late 1960s that my interest in various aspects of subjective probability was awakened by some of the papers of I. J. ( Jack ) Good, and this was followed by the reading of works such as Harold Je?reys s Theory of Probability. In many of these the (apparently simple) result known as Bayes s Theorem played a pivotal r ole, and it struck me that it might be interesting to ?nd out a bit more about Thomas Bayes himself. In trying to satisfy this curiosity in spasmodic periods over many years I discovered that little information seemed to be available. Writings by John D."

Recenzje

From the reviews:

A.I. Dale

Most Honourable Remembrance

The Life & Work of Thomas Bayes

"Interesting and useful as all this will be for anyone interested in knowing more about Bayes, this is just part of the riches contained in this book . . . Beyond doubt this book is a work of the highest quality in terms of the scholarship it displays, and should be regarded as a must for every mathematical library."-MAA ONLINE

"Andrew Dale explains that his aim was to 'flesh out the shadowy figure after whom one of the major branches of modern statistics is named'. The extensive and careful work which the author has put in to achieve his aim is evident everywhere in the book. ... he has done much more by his careful and deep analysis of Bayes work as a whole. Beyond doubt this book is a work of the highest quality in terms of the scholarship it displays ... ." (Ramachandran Bharath, MathDL The MAA Mathematical Sciences Digital Library, January, 2004)

"Historians of mathematics will be interested in the author's accounts of Bayes's few published works. ... we have here a book that seriously adds to the history of mathematics; at the same time provides a fascinating study of some aspects of 18th century society in Britain. All this is done with charm and humour: a book to be cherished." (D.V.Lindley, The Mathematical Gazette, Vol. 90 (517), 2006)

"This book takes the reader back to Bayes's time and place, to understand and appreciate the contribution Thomas Bayes made to mathematics and theology ... . The few primary sources that relate directly to Bayes are supplemented with extensive sources relating to that time and place. ... The author is to be commended for a very considerable work of historical scholarship. ... I recommend it to give insight into Thomas Bayes and his time." (W. M. (Bill) Bolstad, SIAM Review, Vol. 47 (2), 2005)

"The increasing importance of Bayesian methodology has naturally led to an increasing interest in the inventor. ... All of the works are complemented by full discussion and notes ... . The book has some delightful light touches ... and yet maintains a high standard of scholarship throughout. Altogether it is a monumental achievement ... ." (Peter M. Lee, Significance, December, 2004)

"Dale ... offers this painstaking and meticulous study of the environment, life, and work of Thomas Bayes, the nonconformist Presbyterian minister whose posthumous 1763 'An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Changes' profoundly influenced statistics. ... A valuable and very scholarly reference that renders Bayes's scientific opus more easily accessible." (S. J. Colley, CHOICE, February, 2004)

Spis treści

* Preface * Acknowledgments * Introduction * A Bayesian Genealogy * Thomas Bayes: A Life * Divine Benevolence * An Introduction to the Doctrine of Fluxions * On a Semi-convergent Series * The Essay on Chances * The Supplement to the Essay * Letters from John Ward * Miscellaneous Items * The Notebook * Memento Mori * Notes * Bibliography * Index

Blurb

 

Most Honourable Remembrance provides an in-depth discussion of the life and work of Thomas Bayes, an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and lay mathematician who planted the seed of modern Bayesian Statistics in 1763 with his posthumous, An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. After biographical details of Bayes' ancestors, consideration is turned to what is known of Thomas Bayes, the time in which he lived, and also the town in which he spent the major part of his professional life, Tunbridge Wells.

Bayes' published works, ranging from a theological tract to one on fluxions, are reprinted in full and commented upon. Unpublished works, with commentary, are also included, special attention being given to a manuscript notebook in which some early work on a result from the above mentioned Essay may be found. The book concludes with a chapter on Bunhill Fields Burial Ground, where the Bayes family vault is still to be seen and where many prominent Nonconformists were interred.

This book is the first to provide a biography and full discussion of Bayes' works and will be of interest to modern Bayesian statisticians as well as to mathematicians who may well be surprised at some of the mathematical insights shown by Bayes and which are not generally known to be attributable to him.