Morkmon a Quarterly Model of the Netherlands Economy for Macro-Economic Policy Analysis: With a Foreword of the President of the Bank

ISBN-13: 9789024731589 / Angielski / Miękka / 1985 / 140 str.

M. M. G. Fase; M. Tvrdy; M. Tvrdc=

Opis

Oatil the early 1970s monetary econometrics was virtually unexplored territory in the Netherlands. The Bank's econometric research, which I have had the privilege to direct since 1971, sought to map this territory gradually and thus to obtain the el ements for building a monetary model for the Netherlands. As regards the research strategy, I opted for the performance of studies on specific aspects. The quarterly model MORKMON presented in this monograph may be regarded as the conclusion of this research programme. When building the model and writing this monograph, I made heavy and unre mitting demands on the staff of the Econometric Research and Special Studies Department. lowe a debt of gratitude to them all. The contributions made by four of them - EA. G. den Butter, A. P. Huijser, P. Kramer and we. Boeschoten - deserve special mention. Summer of 1984 M. M. G. Fase 8 Contents Foreword of the President 5 Preface 7 1 Introductory remarks 11 1. 1 Prolegomena 11 1. 2 Organization 12 2 The relationships in the monetary sector 14 2. 1 Balance sheets 14 2. 1. 1 Private sector 14 2. 1. 2 Money-creating institutions 16 2. 1. 3 Central bank 17 2. 1. 4 Government 17 2. 1. 5 Rest of the world 18 2. 2 Balance sheet constraints 19 2. 3 The monetary model in outline 22 2. 4 The behavioural equations for the monetary sector 25 2. 4."

Spis treści

1 Introductory remarks.- 1.1 Prolegomena.- 1.2 Organization.- 2 The relationships in the monetary sector.- 2.1 Balance sheets.- 2.1.1 Private sector.- 2.1.2 Money-creating institutions.- 2.1.3 Central bank.- 2.1.4 Government.- 2.1.5 Rest of the world.- 2.2 Balance sheet constraints.- 2.3 The monetary model in outline.- 2.4 The behavioural equations for the monetary sector.- 2.4.1 Demand for financial assets.- 2.4.1.1 Portfolio behaviour model.- 2.4.1.2 Empirical elaboration for financial assets.- 2.4.1.3 Empirical elaboration for the money stock.- 2.4.2 Lending.- 2.4.3 External capital transactions.- 2.4.4 Long and short-term interest rates.- 2.4.5 Foreign exchange market.- 2.5 Residual items.- Annex.- 3 The relationships in the real economic sector.- 3.1 Income and expenditure.- 3.2 The real economic model in outline.- 3.3 The behavioural equations of the real economic sector.- 3.3.1 Domestic expenditure.- 3.3.2 Goods trade with the rest of the world.- 3.3.3 Labour market and wage determination.- 3.3.3.1 Demand for labour.- 3.3.3.2 Supply of labour.- 3.3.3.3 Wage determination.- 3.3.4 Output.- 3.3.5 Price determination.- 3.3.6 Income distribution and the public sector.- 3.4 Comparison of elasticities for external trade.- 4 The links between the monetary and the real economic sector.- 5 The integrated model and its descriptive power.- 5.1 The ex post operation of the model.- 5.2 The operation of the model viewed graphically.- 6 The model as a tool for policy analysis.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 Uncertainty variants.- 6.2.1 Additional growth of world trade.- 6.2.2 Depreciation of the dollar.- 6.2.3 Increase in foreign interest rates.- 6.3 Some policy variants.- 6.3.1 Increase in the domestic discount rate.- 6.3.2 Limitation of net money-creating operations.- 6.3.3 Shift in social insurance contributions from employers to employees.- 6.4 Sensitivity variants.- 6.5 Short and medium term.- 7 Concluding remarks.- 7.1 Criticisms of models for policy planning.- 7.2 Model building and theoretical innovation.- 7.3 Epilogue.- Appendix I The equations used in the model MORKMON.- Appendix II Explanation of symbols used.- Name Index.