Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change

ISBN-13: 9789400777194 / Angielski / Twarda / 2013 / 428 str.

U. C. Mohanty; M. Mohapatra; O. P. Singh Deputy Director General of Meteor

Opis

This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments.This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.

Spis treści

Construction and Quality of Best Tracks Parameters for Study of Climate change Impact on Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during Satellite Era.-  “Climate Change and southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones” International Initiative – Progress since the First International conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change.- Climate Change in Tropical Cyclones and Monsoon Depressions of North Indian Ocean.- Mechanism of the Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Frequency Changes due to Global Warming.- Recent Research at GDFL on Surface Temperature Trends and Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Indian Ocean Region.- Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM.- Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Indian Ocean in the Warmer Climate.- An Analysis of Environmental Dynamical Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity over the Bay of Bengal during 1981–2010.- Analysis of Cyclone Tracks of North Indian Ocean Using Cluster Analysis.- Characteristics of Cyclogenesis over the Indian Ocean during 1891–2011 with Special Emphasis on Bay of Bengal vis-à-vis Arabian Sea.- Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones Using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System.- Prospects for Improving the Operational Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere.- Extended Range Tropical Cyclone Predictions for East Coast of India.- Status and Plans for Operational Tropical cyclone Forecasting and Warning Systems in the North Indian Ocean Region.- Advancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Using Aircraft Observations.- Estimation of Centre and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Using Microwave Imageries.- Multi-model Ensemble Based Extended Range Forecast of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean.- Improvement in Track and Intensity Prediction of Indian Seas Tropical Cyclones with Vortex Assimilation.- NWP Forecast Guidance during Phet at Oman Meteorological  Service.- Impact of Variational data Assimilation for simulating Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal Using WRF-ARW.- Improved Track and Intensity Predictions Using Cyclone Bogusing and Regional Assimilation.- Role of Surface Roughness Length on Simulation of Cyclone Aila.- Simulation of Cyclone ‘Aila-2009’ by Using WRF-ARW Model and Numerical Storm Surge Model.- Mesoscale Modelling for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting over the North Indian Ocean.- Real-Time Prediction of the Tropical Cyclogenesis Location over Bay of Bengal Using Global Forecast System (GFS).- Sensitivity of Mesoscale Simulation of Aila Cyclone to the Parameterization of Physical Processes Using WRF Model.- Assimilation of Doppler Weather Radar Data in WRF Model for Numerical Simulation of Structure of Cyclone Aila (2009) of the Bay of Bengal at the Time of Landfall.- Simulation of Pre-Monsoon Cyclones of Two Contrasting  Monsoon Years Using Mesoscale Model WRF (ARW).- Role of Sea Surface Temperature in Simulation of Arabian Sea Cyclone.- Storm Surge Inundation in South Asia under Climate Change Scenarios.- Inundation Risk Assessment for Nagapatinam coast, Tamil Nadu, Southeast Coast of India.- Understanding the Properties of Cyclonic Storm ‘Aila’ Using NWP Technique.- Impact of Radiance Data Assimilation on Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Thane Using WRF-3DVAR Modelling System.- Retrieval of Atmospheric Temperature Profiles from AMSU-A Measurement Using Artificial Neural Network and Its Applications for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity for ‘Gonu’ and ‘Nargis’.- Characteristic Features of Heavy Rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan States of India due to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet over the Arabian Sea (31 May to 07 June 2010).