Modelling Parasite Transmission and Control

ISBN-13: 9781461425878 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 212 str.

Edwin Michael; Robert C. Spear

Opis

Modelling parasite transmission has made enormous strides since the seminal models of Ross for describing malaria transmission developed during the early 1900s. McDonald's use of the early malaria models to show that killing adult mosquitoes would be particularly effective in reducing infection transmission was a major advance in demonstrating the usefulness of theoretical analysis and population dynamics modelling in particular for guiding parasite control programmes, and since then parasite transmission models have also been used to guide the onchocerciasis control programme in Africa, as well as for investigating best strategies for controlling a host of other parasites, including tuberculosis, trachoma and lately helminth infections, such as schistosomiasis and filariasis. The importance of this work is highlighted by greater understanding of threshold phenomena in transmission dynamics leading to the concept that natural "breakpoints" occur below which parasite systems will go extinct to the roles that worm mating behaviour and infection aggregation can play in both helminth transmission and control. The emerging trend from this work is thus the increasing use of understanding parasite transmission dynamics via the construction and analysis of mathematical models for use in guiding the development of informed parasite control strategies, so much so that this twin objective, viz improving understanding of parasite transmission dynamics and applying models to guide parasite control, has almost become a de facto goal of most recent work in parasite transmission modelling.
We have organized the material in the book into two major sections, the first presenting the state of the art in models aimed at capturing complex or detailed aspects of transmission dynamics beginning with a review of the evolution of modelling malaria transmission. Part II of the book serves to highlight the current use of transmission models in the planning, monitoring and evaluation of parasite control programmes.

Spis treści

Part 1. Modelling Parasite Transmission 1. Progress in Modelling Malaria Transmission David L. Smith and Nick Ruktanonchai Modelling Malaria Transmission, a Historical Introduction Complexity, Parsimony and Robust Descriptions of Transmission Transmission Intensity and Its Estimations Preferential Biting and Uneven Exposure Immunity and the Infectious Reservoir Malaria Transmission in Real Populations Conclusion 2. Vector Transmission Heterogeneity and the Populat ion Dynamics and Control of Lymphatic Filariasis Edwin Michael and Manoj Gambhir Abstract Introduction Lymphatic Filariasis Disease and Parasite Life Cycle Mosquito Vectors of Lymphatic Filariasis Vector-Parasite Infection Relationships Quantifying the Mf-L3 Functional Response in Vector Populations Derivation of Vector-Specific Models of Lymphatic Filariasis Transmission Impact of Vector-Specific Infection Processes on Parasite System Stability, Persistence and Extinction Impact of Vector-Specific Infection Processes on Age Patterns of Infection The Impact of Vector Genus on the Dynamics of Filariasis Control Conclusion 3. Modelling Multi?Species Parasite Transmission Andrea Pugliese Abstract Introduction Structure and Parameters of Models The Model without Direct Interactions Competition among Parasites Normal Approximations Competition and Host Heterogeneity Conclusion 4. Metap opulat ion Models in Tick?Borne Disease Transmission Modelling Holly Gaff and Elsa Schaefer Abstract Introduction Methods Variations within Patches Patch Connectivity The Surrounding Environment Boundary Effects Conclusion 5. Modelling Stochastic Transmission Processes in Helminth Infections Stephen J. Cornell Abstract Introduction Infection in a Single Host Infection among Multiple Hosts Conclusion 6. Modelling Environmenta lly?Mediat ed Infectious Diseases of Humans: Transmission Dynamics of Schistosomiasis in China Justin Remais Abstract Introduction Modelling Schistosome Transmission Model Parameters EnvironmentalData Model Dynamics Modelling Spatial Connectivity Extending the Modelling Framework Conclusion Part 2. Applicat ion of Models to Parasite Control 7. Parameter Estimat ion and Site?Specific Calibrat ion of Disease Transmission Models Robert C. Spear and A. Hubbard Abstract Introduction Local Data A Calibration Example The Posterior Parameter Space Bayesian Melding Conclusion 8. Modelling Malaria Populat ion Structure and Its Implicat ions for Control Caroline O. Buckee and Sunetra Gupta Abstract Introduction Adding Realism to the Basic Framework of the Ross?MacDonald Models Modelling the Effects of Parasite Population Structure Conclusion 9. Mat hemat ical Modelling of the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis Peter J. White and Geoff P. Garnett Abstract Introduction TB Natural History Mathematical Models of TB Transmission Dynamics Modelling the Natural History of TB Vaccination Population Age Structure Interactions with HIV Contact Patterns The Basic and Effective Reproductive Numbers of TB Modelling Strains of TB Host Genetic Factors and Within?Host Modelling TB?Control Strategies Conclusion 10. Modelling Trachoma for Control Programes Manoj Gambhir, María?Gloria Basáñez, Isobel M. Blake and Nicholas C. Grassly Abstract Introduction Antibiotic?Based Control Programmes Methods Results Conclusion 11. Transmission Models and Management of Lymphat ic Filariasis Eliminat ion Edwin Michael and Manoj Gambhir Abstract Introduction Transmission Models and Decisions in Parasite Management Models and Quantifying Intervention Endpoint Targets Models and Design of Optimal Filariasis Intervention Strategies Conclusion 12. Disease Transmission Models for Public Health Decision?Making: Designing Intervention Strat egies for Schistosoma japonicum Edmund Y.W. Seto and Elizabeth J. Carlton Abstract Introduction Model Framework New Model Developments: Incorporating Population Heterogeneity and Connectivity Conclusion Epilogue 13. Modelling Climat e Change and Malaria

O autorze

EDWIN MICHAEL is currently a Senior Lecturer in infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, UK, with a research focus on modelling the transmission and control of tropical parasitic and infectious diseases. His main interest lies in developing a system dynamics approach to gaining a better understanding of parasite transmission, immunology, genetics and economics, in order to develop integrated mathematical models of pathogen transmission as a tool for aiding the rational design, monitoring and evaluation of large-scale intervention programmes, ranging from vector control, chemotherapy to vaccinations. He has worked extensively in Africa (primarily East Africa), India, Vietnam and Papua New Guinea, particularly over the past decade (in partnership with international (WHO, World Bank) and national institutions), in translating research on disease population biology, spatial dynamics and public health decision-making for developing reliable model-based spatial decision support tools to aid the design, surveillance and evaluation of ecologically resilient and sustainable intervention programmes against parasitic diseases of major public health importance in developing countries. His current interest is in extending this work to developing integrated ecological, economic and social systems approaches for investigating interactions between climate change, ecosystem dynamics and the socio-ecology of disease transmission in vulnerable communities.

ROBERT C. SPEAR is an engineer by training, having received the BS and MS degrees in Engineering Science and Mechanical Engineering, respectively, from the University of California at Berkeley and the PhD degree in Control Engineering from Cambridge University in 1968. After several years in the aerospace industry his interests turned to environmental issues and he returned to Berkeley in 1970 to take up a post-doctoral position in this field in the School of Public Health. He was appointed to a faculty position in 1971 and is now Professor of the Graduate School at Berkeley. His research interests focus on the assessment and quantification of human exposures to toxic and hazardous agents in the environment. His early work concerned the exposure of agricultural workers to pesticides. In more recent years his work has concerned applications of mathematical and statistical techniques in the assessment and control of exposures to both chemical and biological agents. For the past 15 years his work has been increasingly focused on determinants of the prevalence and control of the parasitic disease schistosomiasis in the mountainous regions of Sichuan Province in southwestern China.