Latin America’s Pendular Politics: Electoral Cycles and Alternations

ISBN-13: 9783031267604 / Angielski / Twarda / 2023

Olivier Dabène

Opis

​This book explores pendular politics in Latin America, focusing on electoral cycles with a pattern of similar results. Latin America has been neoliberal in the 1990s, leftist during the 2000s, then conservative in 2016-2018 and progressist again since 2018.The reference to a right/left/right/left sequence over a period of thirty years undoubtedly accounts for a singular pendulum pattern yet proves to be excessively simplistic. The right/left dichotomy hides fractures and nuances that characterize each political camp.This book seeks to explain why some elections result in alternations and others do not. Based on an innovative theoretical framework and a unique collection of case studies, the book offers a rich understanding of Latin America’s contemporary political evolutions.Voters are getting accustomed to punishing incumbents for not delivering in time of crises, resulting in frequent alternations. It might be good for democracy, not so much for governability.

Spis treści

Ch 1: Introduction: Electoral cycles, continuity and change in Latin American politics. A framework for analysis (Olivier Dabène)

Ch 2: Chile: from stability to a radical alternation (Olivier Dabène)

Ch 3: Uruguay: right turn or consolidation of the center? Explaining the 2019 presidential swing (Luis Rivera-Vélez)

Ch 4: Radicalizing the alternation: political change and democratic regression in El Salvador (2019-2021) (Kevin Parthenay)

Ch 5: Guatemala: a predictable alternation within the conservative camp (Erica Guevara)

Ch 6: The return of a divided right: Political alternations in Peru (2016-2021) (Gustavo Pastor)

Ch 7: Polarization, depolarization and (re)polarization. The 2019 electoral process and a new rotation in power in Argentine democracy (Dario Rodriguez)

Ch 8: Mexico’s 2018 presidential alternation: changes and continuities after the collapse of the transitional three-party system (Willibald Sonnleitner)

Ch 9: Brazil: a historical double shift (2016-2018) (Frédéric Louault)

Ch 10: The 2019 elections in Bolivia (Sebastian Urioste)

Ch 11: Ecuador: The end of a cycle with an incomplete alternance (Régis Dandoy)

Ch 12: Colombian electoral cycle: the case of a partial alternation in the middle of the pursuit of peace (Luisa Cajamarca)

Ch 13: Paraguay: a case of “intralternation” (Damien Larrouqué)

Ch 14: Costa Rica: a partial alternation and a conservative shift? (Erica Guevara)

Ch 15: The New Sandinista State. Changes in voting procedures and authoritarianism in Nicaragua (Maya Collombon)

Ch 16: Venezuela: the authoritarian and conservative turn of Nicolas Maduro (Thomas Posado)

Ch 17: From competitive authoritarianism to state capture: a contested re-election in Honduras (2017) (Kevin Parthenay)

Ch 18: 

O autorze

Olivier Dabène is Professor of Political Science at the Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po) and Senior Researcher at the Center for International Studies (CERI, Sciences Po), France. He is also the President of the Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) and Visiting Professor in many Latin American universities. 

Blurb

This book explores pendular politics in Latin America, focusing on electoral cycles with a pattern of similar results. Latin America has been neoliberal in the 1990s, leftist during the 2000s, then conservative in 2016-2018 and progressist again since 2018.

The reference to a right/left/right/left sequence over a period of thirty years undoubtedly accounts for a singular pendulum pattern yet proves to be excessively simplistic. The right/left dichotomy hides fractures and nuances that characterize each political camp.

This book seeks to explain why some elections result in alternations and others do not. Based on an innovative theoretical framework and a unique collection of case studies, the book offers a rich understanding of Latin America’s contemporary political evolutions.

Voters are getting accustomed to punishing incumbents for not delivering in time of crises, resulting in frequent alternations. It might be good for democracy, not so much for governability.

Olivier Dabène is Professor of Political Science at the Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po) and Senior Researcher at the Center for International Studies (CERI, Sciences Po), France. He is also the President of the Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) and Visiting Professor in many Latin American universities.