Israel's Intelligence Assessment Before the Yom Kippur War : Disentangling Deception & Distreaction

ISBN-13: 9781845196363 / Angielski / Miękka / 2014 / 297 str.

Aryeh Shalev

Opis

Israel s flawed intelligence assessment in October 1973 has been studied intensively and been the subject of much public and professional debate. "Israel s Intelligence Assessment before the Yom Kippur War" adds a unique dimension to previously disclosed material, as its author served as head of the research branch of Israeli Military Intelligence on the eve of and during the Yom Kippur War and, as such, was responsible for the national intelligence assessment at the time. Drawing on his personal records, and on interviews and extensive research conducted in the intervening decades, Aryeh Shalev examines the preconceptions and common beliefs that prevailed among Israeli intelligence officials and ultimately contributed to their flawed assessment. Beyond explaining where Israeli intelligence erred, the book probes expectations of military intelligence in general and the relationship between military and political assessments. It considers what kind of assessment an intelligence branch is capable of producing with a great degree of certainty, and conversely, what kind of assessment it should not be asked to produce. Based on the intelligence failure of the Yom Kippur War, this book also reviews possible organizational changes and methodological improvements to guard as much as possible against surprise attacks in the future, relevant not only to Israel s circumstances but to all countries with enemies capable of launching an attack."