International Seminar on Trends in Mathematical Modelling: Venice, 13–18 December 1971

ISBN-13: 9783540061441 / Angielski / Miękka / 1973 / 291 str.

Nigel Hawkes

Opis

Paolo Bisogno and Augusto Forti Taking an interest in the future is among the most instinctive Conscious of the existence of time as well as of human activities. space, man has always tried to guess what the future holds. Until recently scholars have left the field of speculation to the pseudo sciences of astrology and palmistry or to the ambiguities of the oracles. Imaginative writers have made some brilliant contributions, but the development of mathematical modelling and other predictive techniques are relatively recent arrivals. The new techniques have come at just the right moment. Today the study of the future has a much sharper relevance than ever before, because people have begun to realise that the future can be controlled - or even that it must be controlled if there is to be a future at all; man should take charge and choose his own future from a wide range of possibilities. Unless he does so, the pressures of the pre sent will impose their own logic and produce a future from a flawed mould - a future in which the contradictions of wealth, privilege and power are monstrously exaggerated by the magnifier of economic growth."

Spis treści

I Introduction.- II The State of Futures Research.- The role of futures research in societal modelling.- The present state of futures research in the Soviet Union.- III Planning of Systems.- A system of models for central planning.- A “non-paternalistic” attitude in using models of social organizations.- Mathematical models in the design and operation of public transport systems.- IV Simulation Modelling and Game Theory.- Mathematical modelling of some social and environmental problems.- Dynamic systems modeling.- The dynamics of global equilibrium.- System simulation to test environmental policy: A sample study of DDT movement in the environment.- A dynamic simulation model of the urban development of Venice.- Some aspects of socio-economic modelling.- Imitation models of historical processes.- V Computers and Methodology for Modelling.- A computer method of analysing the structure of behavioural models.- Information systems and computer systems.- Mathematical modelling of cybernetic systems.- “Soft models”, hard data, and social reality.- Principles of simulation: hierarchical control systems.- VI Human Interaction on Modelling.- Delphi research: Experiments and prospects.- Algorithms for assessing the quality of expert data.- Applications of futures research to society’s problems.- Conclusion.