Innovations for Our Future: Delphi '98: New Foresight on Science and Technology

ISBN-13: 9783790814347 / Angielski / Miękka / 2001 / 271 str.

Kerstin Cuhls; Hariolf Grupp; Knut Blind

Opis

Foresight has experienced a great upswing in the last few years, partly in view of the Millenium. Innovations for our Future describes not only the big development trends of the future in research and technology, but also the re-discovery of the Delphi method. The Delphi method is not new, but with further developed methodology it is being used increasingly to take stock of innovative future developments. The book describes results of the widespread national survey of 1998, a German-Japanese comparison, another comparison with the preceding Delphi study as well as its utilization and implementation.

Spis treści

1 History and Basic Methods.- 1.1 What can we know about the future?.- 1.2 On the history of modern foresight.- 1.3 From forecasting to foresight.- 1.4 Methodological tool-kit of foresight.- 1.5 Forward looking over time: the career of the Delphi method.- 1.6 Benefits of foresight in general.- 2 Outline of the Second Comprehensive Outline of Delphi Study in Germany.- 2.1 What are the key questions?.- 2.2 Organisation of the Delphi process.- 2.3 Questionnaire.- 2.4 Who was surveyed?.- 2.5 Method of calculation and formulae used.- 3 Aggregated Assessments across all Subject Areas.- 3.1 Expertise of the experts taking part.- 3.2 Importance of the Delphi topics.- 3.3 Expected time of realisation of the visions.- 3.4 Germany’s position in research and development: self-perception.- 3.5 What measures should be taken?.- 3.6 Which areas of life are threatened by problems resulting from innovations?.- 3.7 Identical topics in several subject areas.- 3.8 What lies ahead? An overview.- 4 The Subject Areas.- 4.1 Information and Communication.- 4.2 Service and Consumption.- 4.3 Management and Production.- 4.4 Chemistry and Materials.- 4.5 Health and Life Processes.- 4.6 Agriculture and Food.- 4.7 Environment and Nature.- 4.8 Energy and Resources.- 4.9 Construction and Living.- 4.10 Mobility and Transport.- 4.11 Space.- 4.12 Big Science Experiments.- 5 Megatrends: Stereotyped Thinking Pattern of the Experts?.- 5.1 Megatrends in Delphi ‘98 and their influence on science and technology.- 5.2 Factor analysis to determine R&D experts’ attitudes.- 5.3 Similarities and differences in the estimation of the future development of science and technology.- 5.4 Different estimations concerning innovation fields — A selection.- 5.5 Selected topics with significantly different estimations by the expert types.- 6 Comparison of the Asessments between Delphi ‘98 and Former Studies.- 7 German-Japanese Comparison.- 7.1 All topics.- 7.2 Information and Communication.- 7.3 Services and Consumption.- 7.4 Management and Production.- 7.5 Chemistry and Materials.- 7.6 Health and Life Processes.- 7.7 Agriculture and Food.- 7.8 Environment and Nature.- 7.9 Energy and Resources.- 7.10 Construction and Living.- 7.11 Mobility and Transport.- 7.12 Space.- 7.13 Big Science Experiments.- 8 Selected Methodological Problems.- 8.1 The application of Delphi ‘98 results.- 8.2 New foresight paradigms in comparing recent national activities in foresight?.- 8.3 Choice of experts.- 8.4 The integration of existing foresight activities.- 8.5 New foresight approaches.- 8.6 Databases as a means of foresight.- 8.7 Why do politics, academia, and business need assessment and foresight?.- 9 Outlook.- 9.1 Foresight in Germany: FUTUR’s second start.- 9.2 Challenges of tomorrow.- Literature.