Info-Gap Economics: An Operational Introduction

ISBN-13: 9780230228047 / Angielski / Twarda / 2010 / 245 str.

Yakov Ben-Haim;¬Abar

Opis

This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.

Recenzje

'Reading Info-Gap Economics was no less than inspiring, and taught me a great deal about modelling uncertainty. The advantages of the economical Info-gap models lie in their ability to maximize the immunity of model-based economic decisions to adverse uncertainty. The models are intuitive, start from the available knowledge and make few (if any) assumptions about true uncertainty, which may be difficult or even impossible to predict... I would strongly recommend Info-Gap Economics to ecological economists in need of some inspiration for modelling uncertainty, but particularly to decision makers dealing with decisions that have long-term consequences.' - Prof. Thomas Knoke, Institute of Forest Management, Technical University of Munich, Germany. Ecological Economics, 2010, Volume 70, Issue 3, pp.567-568."

'Ben-Haim's 'theories and presentation of how to calculate what one NEEDS to know are, or should be, MUST reading for any one seriously involved in any aspect of today's economic world, from the trader on a desk to a Central Bank head. It is much too easy, given the stresses of todays world, to skip past missing information so as to act quickly in the market, but that is exactly the path which leads to significant errors, as we have all unfortunately witnessed. A method of calculating the 'info gap' is certainly vital in setting policy.' - Lew Weston, Retired Partner, Goldman, Sachs& Co

'In an economic world where complexity defines the system and the underlying models are at best simplistic and incomplete, it is imperative that policy decisions be taken on the assumption of (disappointingly) incomplete knowledge. This is the time for info-gap and decisions under fundamental uncertainty.' - Dr. Maria Demertzis, Research Department, De Nederlandsche Bank, The Netherlands

'Much of the recent economic crisis can be traced to over reliance on simple mathematical models that take no account of the fact that real economies are subject to significant Knightian uncertainty. Ben-Haim shows how Info-Gap Theory can be used to model this uncertainty with carefully chosen, relevant and important economic examples. A must-read for serious economic decision makers.' - Professor Colin J. Thompson, Maths and Stats Department, University of Melbourne, Australia

'Info-gap theory offers a new foundation for economic analysis by providing a general, rigorous methodology for decision making under severe uncertainty. This makes Info-Gap Economics an important book to read for researchers and policymakers alike.' Dr. Gabriele Galati, European Journal of Operational Research, 2011, Volume 210 pp.757-760

'In sum, this is a fascinating book that will play a key role in the discussion on how to model economic decision-making in the face of uncertainty. ... But especially in this time of major changes in the economic and financial sphere, a book like Info-Gap Economics provides a very important contribution to the research literature and the policy debate.' Dr. Gabriele Galati, European Journal of Operational Research, 2011, Volume 210 pp.757-760

Spis treści

Preface  PART I: GETTING STARTED Info-Gap Theory in Plain English A First Look: Stylized Example PART II: ECONOMIC DECISIONS Monetary Policy Financial Stability Topics in Public Policy Estimation and Forecasting PART III: WRAPPING UP The Art of Uncertainty Modelling Positivism, F-twist, and Robust-Satisficing References Author Index Subject Index

O autorze

YAKOV BEN-HAIM holds the Yitzhak Moda'i Chair in Technology and Economics at the Technion - Israel Institute of Technology. He initiated and developed info-gap decision theory for modelling and managing severe uncertainty. Info-gap theory is applied in engineering, biological conservation, economics, project management, homeland security, medicine and other areas. He is the author of five books and numerous articles.