Inference and Intervention: Causal Models for Business Analysis

ISBN-13: 9780415657600 / Angielski / Miękka / 2013 / 266 str.

Michael D Ryall

Opis

Ryall and Bramson's Inference and Intervention is the first textbook on causal modeling with Bayesian networks for business applications. In a world of resource scarcity, a decision about which business elements to control or change - as the authors put it, a managerial intervention - must precede any decision on how to control or change them, and understanding causality is crucial to making effective interventions. The authors cover the full spectrum of causal modeling techniques useful for the managerial role, whether for intervention, situational assessment, strategic decision-making, or forecasting. From the basic concepts and nomenclature of causal modeling to decision tree analysis, qualitative methods, and quantitative modeling tools, this book offers a toolbox for MBA students and business professionals to make successful decisions in a managerial setting.

Spis treści

1. Introduction to Causal Analysis  2. Qualitative Causal Models  3. Application: Interview Case Study  4. Quantitative Causal Models  5. Situational Analysis  6. Application: Modeling Business Financials  7. Single-Agent Interventions  8. Application: Disrupting the Taxi Business  9. Multi-Agent Intervention  10. Data-Driven Causal Modeling