Image: An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect

ISBN-13: 9789401067966 / Angielski / Miękka / 2011 / 289 str.

Jan Rotmans

Opis

This book is the result of a research project entitled "Reference function for Global Air Pollution/C0 " initiated by RIVM. It deals with the description 2 of a computer simulation model of the greenhouse effect. This model, IMAGE, tries to capture the fundamentals of the complex problem of climate change in a simplified way. The model is a multidisciplinary product and is based on knowledge from disciplines as economics, atmospheric chemistry, marine and terrestrial biogeochemistry, ecology, climatology, and glaciology. This book might be of interest for anyone working in the broad field of climate change. Furthermore, it can be useful for model builders, simulation experts, mathematicians etc. A PC version of the model will become avail able free of charge. Requests can be sent to the author. Although being the only author of this book, I could never have written it without the help of many other people. First of all I would like to thank Koos Vrieze, originally a colleague at RIVM, later my professor. Without his inspiring attitude I would have never finished this thesis. I am also very grateful to RIVM for giving me the opportunity to write this thesis. lowe many thanks to Hans de Boois and Rob Swart for their support and assis tance during the research. Furthermore, I would like to thank my trainees who have substantially contributed to the contents of this book."

Spis treści

1 General Introduction.- 1.1 The Problem.- 1.2 The Model.- 2 General Model description of IMAGE.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Description of the Various Module.- 2.2.1 Emission Modules.- 2.2.2 Concentration Modules.- 2.2.3 Climate Module.- 2.2.4 Sea Level Rise Modul.- 2.2.5 Socio-Economic Impact Module.- 2.3 Description of Scenarios.- 2.3.1 Introduction.- 2.3.2 Energy Supply.- 2.3.3 Agriculture.- 2.3.4 CFC Use.- 2.3.5 Other Trends.- 2.4 Model Deficiencies and Future Developments.- 2.5 Comparison with Other Models.- 2.6 Discussion.- 3 The Carbon Cycle Model.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Model Description.- 3.3 Emissions Module.- 3.4 Atmospheric Concentrations Module.- 3.5 Ocean Module.- 3.6 Terrestrial Biosphere Module.- 3.7 Deforestation Module.- 3.7.1 Introduction.- 3.7.2 Description of the Deforestation Model.- 3.7.3 Description of the Processes.- 3.8 Validation and Uncertainty.- 3.9 Results.- 3.10 Conclusions.- 3.11 Appendix.- 4 The Methane Module.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Model Description.- 4.2.1 Structure.- 4.2.2 Calculation Procedure.- 4.2.3 Notation.- 4.3 Emissions.- 4.4 Concentrations.- 4.5 Results.- 4.6 Conclusions.- 5 The N 2O Module.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 N2O Emissions Module.- 5.3 N2O Concentration Module.- 5.4 Results.- 5.5 Conclusions.- 6 The CFCs Module.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 CFCs Emissions Module.- 6.3 CFCs Concentrations Module.- 6.4 Results.- 6.5 Conclusions.- 7 The Climate Module.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 Model Description.- 7.2.1 Equilibrium Response.- 7.2.2 Transient Response.- 7.2.3 Climate Feedbacks.- 7.3 Results.- 7.4 Conclusions.- 8 The Sea Level Rise Module.- 8.1 Basic Trend.- 8.2 Thermal Expansion.- 8.3 Glaciers and Small Ice Caps.- 8.4 Greenland Ice Cap.- 8.5 Antarctic Ice Cap.- 8.6 Uncertainties.- 8.7 Sea Level Rise Potential.- 8.8 Results.- 8.9 Conclusion.- 9 Socio-Economic Impact.- 9.1 Introduction.- 9.2 General Model Description.- 9.3 Quantification of Impacts for Various Sectors.- 9.3.1 Introduction.- 9.3.2 Coastal Defence.- 9.3.3 Water Management and Water Supply.- 9.3.4 Agriculture.- 9.3.5 Energy Use.- 9.4 Results.- 9.5 Conclusions.- 10 Policy Analysis.- 10.1 Introduction.- 10.2 Scenario Calculations.- 10.3 Low Climate Risk Scenario.- 10.4 Results.- 10.5 Delayed Response.- 10.6 Future Worlds.- 10.7 Conclusions.- 11 Temperature Increasing Potential.- 11.1 Introduction.- 11.2 Relation between Temperature and Emissions.- 11.3 Methodology.- 11.3.1 Definition.- 11.3.2 Modelling Approach.- 11.3.3 Analytical Approach.- 11.4 Results.- 11.5 Conclusions.- 11.6 Appendix.- 12 Sensitivity Analysis.- 12.1 Introduction.- 12.2 Metamodelling.- 12.3 Experimental Design.- 12.4 A Metamodel for the Costs of Dike Raising.- 12.4.1 Introduction.- 12.4.2 Input and output variables.- 12.4.3 Specification of the First Metamodel for the Costs of Dike Raising.- 12.4.4 Experimental Design for the First Metamodel.- 12.4.5 Results of the First Metamodel.- 12.4.6 Further Analysis after the First Metamodel.- 12.4.7 Specification of the Final Metamodel for the Costs of Dike Raising.- 12.4.8 Validation of the Final Metamodel.- 12.4.9 Scaling Effects.- 12.4.10 Conclusions.- 12.5 A Metamodel for the Ocean Module.- 12.5.1 Introduction.- 12.5.2 First Metamodel for the Ocean Module.- 12.5.3 Further Analysis after the First Metamodel.- 12.5.4 Final Metamodel for the Ocean Module.- 12.5.5 Conclusions.- 12.6 A Terrestrial Biosphere Metamodel.- 12.6.1 Introduction.- 12.6.2 Various Metamodels for the Terrestrial Biosphere Module.- 12.6.3 Conclusions.- 12.7 General Conclusions.- 13 Discussion.- References.