Hollywood Economics: How Extreme Uncertainty Shapes the Film Industry

ISBN-13: 9780415312608 / Angielski / Twarda / 2003 / 328 str.

Arthur S. De Vany

Opis

Just how risky is the movie industry? Is screenwriter William Goldman's claim that "nobody knows anything" really true? Can a star and a big opening change a movie's risks and return? Do studio executives really earn their huge paychecks? These and many other questions are answered in Hollywood Economics. The book uses powerful analytical models to uncover the wild uncertainty that shapes the industry. The centerpiece of the analysis is the unpredictable and often chaotic dynamic behaviour of motion picture audiences. This unique and important book will be of interest to students and researchers involved in the economics of movies, industrial economics and business studies. The book will also be a real eye-opener for film writers, movie executives, finance and risk management professionals as well as more general movie fans.

Spis treści

Part I: Box-office champions, chaotic dynamics and herding  1. The market for motion pictures: Rank, revenue and survival  2. Bose-Einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in the motion picture industry  3. Quality evaluations and the breakdown of statistical herding in the dynamics of box-office revenue  Part II: "Wild" uncertainty, tough decisions and false beliefs  4. Uncertainty in the movie industry: Can star power reduce the terror of the box office?  5. Does Hollywood make too many R-rated movies?: Risk, stochastic dominance and the illusion of expectation  6. Big budgets, big openings and legs: Analysis of the blockbuster strategy  Part III: Judges, lawyers and the movies  7. Motion picture antitrust: The Paramount cases revisited  8. Was the antitrust action that broke up the movie studios good for the movies?: Evidence from the stock market  9. Stochastic market structure: Concentration measures and motion picture antitrust  Part IV: A business of extremes  10. Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis and the curse of the superstar  11. Contracting with stars when "nobody knows anything"  12. How extreme uncertainty shapes the movie business  Epilogue: Can you manage a business when "nobody knows anything"?

O autorze

Arthur De Vany is Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of California, Irvine and President of Arts Analytica, a consulting company specializing in energy, motion pictures and risk-return analysis.