Government Budget Forecasting: Theory and Practice

ISBN-13: 9781420045826 / Angielski / Twarda / 2008 / 660 str.

Jinping Sun; Thomas D. Lynch; Jinping Sun

Opis

Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes:

1. Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically
2. Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement

Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.

Spis treści

Federal Revenue Forecasting. The State of the Art: Revenue Forecasting in U.S. State Government. Forecasting State Revenues in Louisiana: From Dramatic Changes in the Oil and Gas Industry in the 1970s and 1980s to the Aftermath of Catastrophic Hurricanes in the 2000s. Budget Forecasting for the State of California. Forecasting the Personal Income Tax. Income Tax Forecasting in Minnesota. Methods and Issues in Forecasting Casino Tax Revenue. Estimating and Forecasting Welfare Caseloads. Forecast Evaluation: A Case Study. Using Census Data to Forecast New Local Sales Taxes. Does Revenue Forecasting Responsibility Matter: The Case of Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Evaluating Revenue Forecasting in City Governments: A Survey of Texas Finance Directors. Pro Forma Forecasting for Determining Financial Position of Enterprise Operations in Government. Preparing Data for Forecasting. Consensus Forecasting for Budgeting in Theory and Practice. Use of Consensus Revenue Forecasting in the U.S. State Governments. State Revenue Forecasting in the State of Indiana: A Consensus System in a Politically Divided State. Consensus Revenue Estimating in State Government: A Case of What Works in Kansas. Forecast Errors: Balancing the Risks and Costs of Being Wrong. State Fiscal Management: What Practitioners Can Learn from Risk Management Theory. State Tax Portfolios: An Integrated Methodology for Forecasting and Analysis. Forecasting Revenues and Expenditures in the Public Sector: Guidance from a Code of Ethics. Transparency in Government Revenue Forecasting. Incorporating Fiscal Architecture into Budget Forecasting. Forecasting Practices in Emerging Countries: The Morocco Experience.

O autorze

Jinping Sun (California State University, Bakersfield, USA) (Edited by) ,  Thomas D. Lynch (Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, USA) (Edited by)