Global Dynamics: Approaches from Complexity Science

ISBN-13: 9781118922286 / Angielski / Twarda / 2016 / 352 str.

Alan Wilson

Opis

A world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid. This bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input-output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter-sub-regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies - along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions. This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work-out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales. Global dynamics:

• Presents in depth models of global dynamics.
• Provides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid.
• Provides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development.
• Features a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development.
• Offers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts.

This book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students.

Spis treści

Notes on Contributors xiii

Acknowledgements xvii

Part I GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND THE TOOLS OF COMPLEXITY SCIENCE

1 Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science 3
Alan Wilson

Reference 7

Part II TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2 The Global Trade System and Its Evolution 11
Simone Caschili and Francesca Medda

2.1 The Evolution of the Shipping and Ports System 11

2.2 Analyses of the Cargo Ship Network 12

2.3 A Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) Perspective 15

2.4 Conclusions: The Benefits of a Systems Perspective 20

References 21

Appendix 23

A.1 Complexity Science and Complex Adaptive Systems: Key Characteristics 23

A.1.1 Four Properties 24

A.1.2 Three Mechanisms 25

3 An Interdependent Multi–layer Model for Trade 26
Simone Caschili, Francesca Medda, and Alan Wilson

3.1 Introduction 26

3.2 The Interdependent Multi–layer Model: Vertical Integration 27

3.3 Model Layers 30

3.3.1 Economic Layer 30

3.3.2 Social and Cultural Layer (Socio–cultural) 33

3.3.3 Physical Layer 34

3.4 The Workings of the Model 34

3.5 Model Calibration 35

3.6 Result 1: Steady State 39

3.7 Result 2: Estimation and Propagation of Shocks in the IMM 42

3.8 Discussion and Conclusions 48

References 48

4 A Global Inter–country Economic Model Based on Linked Input Output Models 51
Robert G. Levy, Thomas P. Oléron Evans, and Alan Wilson

4.1 Introduction 51

4.2 Existing Global Economic Models 52

4.3 Description of the Model 53

4.3.1 Outline 53

4.3.2 Introduction to Input Output Tables 53

4.3.3 A Single Country Model 55

4.3.4 An International Trade Model 57

4.3.5 Setting Model Coefficients from Data 58

4.4 Solving the Model 58

4.4.1 The Leontief Equation 58

4.4.2 The Drawbacks of Mathematical Elegance 59

4.4.3 Algorithm for an Iterative Solution 59

4.5 Analysis 61

4.5.1 Introduction 61

4.5.2 Simple Modelling Approaches 61

4.5.3 A Unified Network Approach 64

4.5.4 Comparison with a Multi–region Input Output Model 67

4.6 Conclusions 67

Acknowledgements 69

References 69

Appendix 71

A.1 Modelling the Rest of the World 71

A.2 Services Trade Data 71

A.2.1 Importing Own Exports 72

A.2.2 The Rest of the World for Sectors 72

Part III MIGRATION

5 Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres 75
Adam Dennett and Pablo Mateos

5.1 Introduction 75

5.2 Policy and Migration Research 76

5.2.1 Key Policy Issues in Contemporary Migration Research 76

5.2.2 Linking Policy Issues to Modelling Challenges 81

5.2.3 Policy–related Research Questions for Modellers 82

5.2.4 Other International Migration Modelling Research 83

5.3 Conclusion 84

References 84

Appendix 87

A.1 United Kingdom 87

A.2 Rest of Europe 90

A.3 Rest of the World 94

6 Estimating Inter–regional Migration in Europe 97
Adam Dennett and Alan Wilson

6.1 Introduction 97

6.2 The Spatial System and the Modelling Challenge 98

6.3 Biproportional Fitting Modelling Methodology 100

6.3.1 Model (i) 104

6.3.2 Model (ii) 105

6.3.3 Model (iii) 105

6.3.4 Model (iv) 108

6.3.5 Model (v) 109

6.3.6 Model (vi) 110

6.4 Model Parameter Calibration 110

6.5 Model Experiments 113

6.6 Results 118

6.7 Conclusions and Comments on the New Framework for Estimating Inter–regional, Inter–country Migration Flows in Europe 121

References 123

7 Estimating an Annual Time Series of Global Migration Flows An Alternative Methodology for Using Migrant Stock Data 125
Adam Dennett

7.1 Introduction 125

7.2 Methodology 129

7.2.1 Introduction 129

7.2.2 Calculating Migration Probabilities 129

7.2.3 Calculating Total Migrants in the Global System 130

7.2.4 Generating a Consistent Time Series of Migration Probabilities 133

7.2.5 Producing Annual Bilateral Estimates 135

7.3 Results and Validation 135

7.3.1 Introduction 135

7.3.2 IMEM comparison 135

7.3.3 UN Flow Data Comparison 136

7.4 Discussion 138

7.5 Conclusions 140

References 140

Part IV SECURITY

8 Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat 145
Peter Baudains and Alan Wilson

8.1 Introduction 145

8.2 Conflict Intensity: Space Time Patterning of Events 146

8.3 Understanding Conflict Onset: Simulation–based Models 148

8.4 Forecasting Global Conflict Hotspots 150

8.5 A Spatial Model of Threat 150

8.6 Discussion: The Use of a Spatial Threat Measure in Models of Conflict 153

8.6.1 Threat in Models for Operational Decision–Making 153

8.6.2 Threat in a Model of Conflict Escalation 154

8.6.3 Threat in Modelling Global Military Expenditure 156

8.6.4 Summary 156

References 157

9 Riots 159
Peter Baudains

9.1 Introduction 159

9.2 The 2011 Riots in London 160

9.2.1 Space Time Interaction 162

9.2.2 Journey to Crime 164

9.2.3 Characteristics of Rioters 165

9.3 Data–Driven Modelling of Riot Diffusion 166

9.4 Statistical Modelling of Target Choice 169

9.5 A Generative Model of the Riots 171

9.6 Discussion 172

References 173

10 Rebellions 175
Peter Baudains, Jyoti Belur, Alex Braithwaite, Elio Marchione and Shane D. Johnson

10.1 Introduction 175

10.2 Data 176

10.3 Hawkes model 177

10.4 Results 181

10.5 Discussion 183

References 185

11 Spatial Interaction as Threat: Modelling Maritime Piracy 187
Elio Marchione and Alan Wilson

11.1 The Model 187

11.2 The Test Case 188

11.3 Uses of the Model 189

Reference 191

Appendix 192

A.1 Volume Field of Type k Ship 192

A.2 Volume Field of Naval Units 193

A.3 Pirates Ports and Mother Ships 193

12 Space Time Modelling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq 195
Alex Braithwaite and Shane Johnson

12.1 Introduction 195

12.2 Counterinsurgency in Iraq 196

12.3 Counterinsurgency Data 200

12.4 Diagnoses of Space, Time and Space Time Distributions 202

12.4.1 Introduction 202

12.4.2 Spatial Distribution 202

12.4.3 Temporal Distribution 203

12.4.4 Space Time Distribution 203

12.4.5 Univariate Knox Analysis 206

12.4.6 Bivariate Knox Analysis 208

12.5 Concluding Comments 210

References 212

13 International Information Flows, Government Response and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict 214
Janina Beiser

13.1 Introduction 214

13.2 Global Information Flows 216

13.3 The Effect of Information Flows on Armed Civil Conflict 220

13.4 The Effect of Information Flows on Government Repression 225

13.5 Conclusion 226

References 226

Appendix 229

Part V AID AND DEVELOPMENT

14 International Development Aid: A Complex System 233
Belinda Wu

14.1 Introduction: A Complex Systems Perspective 233

14.2 The International Development Aid System: Definitions 234

14.3 Features of International Development Aid as a Complex System 235

14.3.1 Introduction 235

14.3.2 Non–linearity 235

14.3.3 Connectedness 237

14.3.4 Self–Adapting and Self–Organising 238

14.3.5 Emergence 238

14.4 Complexity and Approaches to Research 238

14.4.1 Organisations 238

14.4.2 The Range of Issues 239

14.4.3 Research Approaches 240

14.4.4 The Complexity Science Approach 242

14.5 The Assessment of the Effectiveness of International Development Aid 242

14.5.1 Whether Aid Can Be Effective 242

14.5.2 Complexity in the Measurement of Aid Effectiveness 244

14.5.3 Complexity in Methods/Standards of Measurement of Aid Effectiveness 245

14.5.4 Standardising Aid Effectiveness 246

14.6 Relationships and Interactions 248

14.6.1 Relationships between Donor and Recipient Countries 248

14.6.2 Relationships between Aid and Other Systems 249

14.7 Conclusions 251

References 252

15 Model Building for the Complex System of International Development Aid 257
Belinda Wu, Sean Hanna and Alan Wilson

15.1 Introduction 257

15.2 Data Collection 258

15.2.1 Introduction 258

15.2.2 Aid Data 258

15.2.3 Trade Data 260

15.2.4 Security Data 261

15.2.5 Migration Data 261

15.2.6 Geographical Data 261

15.2.7 Data Selected 262

15.3 Model Building 263

15.3.1 Modelling Approach 263

15.3.2 Alesina and Dollar Model 263

15.3.3 Our Models 264

15.3.4 Model B: Introducing Donor Interactions and Modification of the Model 267

15.3.5 Findings from Model B 267

15.3.6 Model C: Introducing Interactions with Trade System and Further Modification of the Model 267

15.3.7 Findings from Model C 268

15.4 Discussion and Future Work 268

References 269

16 Aid Allocation: A Complex Perspective 271
Robert J. Downes and Steven R. Bishop

16.1 Aid Allocation Networks 271

16.1.1 Introduction 271

16.1.2 Why Networks? 272

16.1.3 Donor Motivation in Aid Allocation 273

16.2 Quantifying Aid via a Mathematical Model 273

16.2.1 Overview of Approach 273

16.2.2 Basic Set–Up 274

16.2.3 The Network of Nations 275

16.2.4 Preference Functions 275

16.2.5 Specifying the Preference Functions 275

16.2.6 Recipient Selection by Donors 276

16.3 Application of the Model 277

16.3.1 Introduction 277

16.3.2 Scenario 1. No Feedback 277

16.3.3 Scenario 2. Bandwagon Feedback 281

16.3.4 Scenario 3. Aid Effectiveness Feedback 283

16.3.5 Aid Usage Mechanism 284

16.3.6 Application 286

16.3.7 Conclusions 287

16.4 Remarks 287

Acknowledgements 288

References 288

Appendix 290

A.1 Common Functional Definitions 290

Part VI GLOBAL DYNAMICS: AN INTEGRATED MODEL AND POLICY CHALLENGES

17 An Integrated Model 293
Robert G. Levy

17.1 Introduction 293

17.2 Adding Migration 294

17.2.1 Introduction 294

17.2.2 The Familiarity Effect 295

17.2.3 Consumption Similarity 301

17.2.4 Conclusions 304

17.3 Adding Aid 304

17.3.1 Introduction 304

17.3.2 Estimating Exportness 305

17.3.3 Modelling Approach 306

17.3.4 Results 306

17.3.5 Conclusions 314

17.4 Adding Security 316

17.4.1 Introduction 316

17.4.2 Literature Review 316

17.4.3 Measures of Threat and the Global Dynamics Model 317

17.4.4 Trade during Changing Security Conditions 318

17.4.5 An Experiment of Increased Threat in the Global Dynamics Model 318

17.4.6 Conclusions 322

17.5 Concluding Comments 323

References 324

Index 327