Geomorphology and Natural Hazards: Understanding Landscape Change for Disaster Mitigation

ISBN-13: 9781119990314 / Angielski / Miękka / 2021 / 576 str.

Tim Davies; Mauri McSaveney; Oliver Korup

Spis treści

Preface ixAcknowledgements xiii1 Natural Disasters and Sustainable Development in Dynamic Landscapes 11.1 Breaking News 11.2 Dealing with Future Disasters: Potentials and Problems 41.3 The Sustainable Society 51.4 Benefits from Natural Disasters 71.5 Summary 102 Defining Natural Hazards, Risks, and Disasters 132.1 Hazard Is Tied To Assets 132.1.1 Frequency and magnitude 142.1.2 Hazard cascades 162.2 Defining and Measuring Disaster 172.3 Trends in Natural Disasters 182.4 Hazard is Part of Risk 192.4.1 Vulnerability 192.4.2 Elements at risk 212.4.3 Risk aversion 232.4.4 Risk is a multidisciplinary expectation of loss 232.5 Risk Management and the Risk Cycle 242.6 Uncertainties and Reality Check 252.7 A Future of More Extreme Events? 262.8 Read More About Natural Hazards and Disasters 283 Natural Hazards and Disasters through The Geomorphic Lens 333.1 Drivers of Earth Surface Processes 343.1.1 Gravity, solids, and fluids 343.1.2 Motion mainly driven by gravity 363.1.3 Motion mainly driven by water 373.1.4 Motion mainly driven by ice 393.1.5 Motion driven mainly by air 403.2 Natural Hazards and Geomorphic Concepts 403.2.1 Landscapes are open, nonlinear systems 403.2.2 Landscapes adjust to maximise sediment transport 413.2.3 Tectonically active landscapes approach a dynamic equilibrium 433.2.4 Landforms develop toward asymptotes 443.2.5 Landforms record recent most effective events 463.2.6 Disturbances travel through landscapes 463.2.7 Scaling relationships inform natural hazards 484 Geomorphology Informs Natural Hazard Assessment 514.1 Geomorphology Can Reduce Impacts from Natural Disasters 514.2 Aims of Applied Geomorphology 534.3 The Geomorphic Footprints of Natural Disasters 544.4 Examples of Hazard Cascades 564.4.1 Megathrust earthquakes, Cascadia subduction zone 564.4.2 Postseismic river aggradation, southwest New Zealand 584.4.3 Explosive eruptions and their geomorphic aftermath, Southern Volcanic Zone, Chile 594.4.4 Hotter droughts promote less stable landscapes, western United States 595 Tools for Predicting Natural Hazards 635.1 The Art of Prediction 635.2 Types of Models for Prediction 665.3 Empirical Models 675.3.1 Linking landforms and processes 685.3.2 Regression models 705.3.3 Classification models 725.4 Probabilistic Models 735.4.1 Probability expresses uncertainty 745.4.2 Probability is more than frequency 775.4.3 Extreme-value statistics 805.4.4 Stochastic processes 815.4.5 Hazard cascades, event trees, and network models 835.5 Prediction and Model Selection 845.6 Deterministic Models 855.6.1 Static models 855.6.2 Dynamic models 866 Earthquake Hazards 956.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Earthquakes 956.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Earthquakes 976.2.1 The seismic hazard cascade 976.2.2 Post-seismic and inter-seismic impacts 996.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Earthquakes 1006.3.1 Offset landforms 1016.3.2 Fault trenching 1026.3.3 Coseismic deposits 1046.3.4 Buildings and trees 1077 Volcanic Hazards 1117.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Volcanic Eruptions 1117.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions 1137.2.1 The volcanic hazard cascade 1137.2.2 Geomorphic impacts during eruption 1147.2.3 Impacts on the atmosphere 1157.2.4 Geomorphic impacts following an eruption 1167.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Volcanic Impacts 1187.3.1 Effusive eruptions 1187.3.2 Explosive eruptions 1207.4 Climate-Driven Changes in Crustal Loads 1248 Landslides and Slope Instability 1318.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Landslides 1318.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Landslides 1348.2.1 Landslides in the hazard cascade 1348.2.2 Landslides on glaciers 1368.2.3 Submarine landslides 1378.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Landslides 1378.3.1 Landslide inventories 1378.3.2 Reconstructing slope failures 1388.4 Other Forms of Slope Instability: Soil Erosion and Land Subsidence 1418.5 Climate Change and Landslides 1439 Tsunami Hazards 1519.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Tsunamis 1519.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Tsunamis 1539.2.1 Tsunamis in the hazard cascade 1539.2.2 The role of coastal geomorphology 1549.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Tsunamis 1559.4 Future Tsunami Hazards 16210 Storm Hazards 16510.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Storms 16510.1.1 Tropical storms 16510.1.2 Extratropical storms 16610.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Storms 16710.2.1 The coastal storm-hazards cascade 16710.2.2 The inland storm-hazard cascade 17110.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Storms 17210.3.1 Coastal settings 17310.3.2 Inland settings 17410.4 Naturally Oscillating Climate and Increasing Storminess 17511 Flood Hazards 18111.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Floods 18211.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Floods 18311.2.1 Floods in the hazard cascade 18311.2.2 Natural dam-break floods 18511.2.3 Channel avulsion 18911.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Floods 19011.4 Lessons from Prehistoric Megafloods 19411.5 Measures of Catchment Denudation 19611.6 The Future of Flood Hazards 19812 Drought Hazards 20512.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Droughts 20512.1.1 Defining drought 20612.1.2 Measuring drought 20712.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Droughts 20812.2.1 Droughts in the hazard cascade 20812.2.2 Soil erosion, dust storms, and dune building 20812.2.3 Surface runoff and rivers 21012.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Drought Impacts 21112.4 Towards More Megadroughts? 21513 Wildfires 21913.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Wildfires 21913.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Wildfires 22113.2.1 Wildfires in the hazard cascade 22113.2.2 Direct fire impacts 22113.2.3 Indirect and post-fire impacts 22213.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Wildfires 22513.4 Towards More Megafires? 22714 Snow and Ice Hazards 23114.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Snow and Ice Hazards 23114.2 Geomorphic Impact of Snow and Ice Hazards 23214.2.1 Snow and ice in the hazard cascade 23214.2.2 Snow and ice avalanches 23314.2.3 Jokulhlaups ¨ 23614.2.4 Degrading permafrost 23714.2.5 Other ice hazards 23914.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Snow and Ice Processes 24014.4 Atmospheric Warming and Cryospheric Hazards 24115 Sea-Level Change and Coastal Hazards 24715.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Sea-Level Change 24815.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Sea-Level Change 25015.2.1 Sea levels in the hazard cascade 25015.2.2 Sedimentary coasts 25115.2.3 Rocky coasts 25315.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Sea Levels 25415.4 A Future of Rising Sea Levels 25716 How Natural are Natural Hazards? 26316.1 Enter the Anthropocene 26316.2 Agriculture, Geomorphology, and Natural Hazards 26616.3 Engineered Rivers 27016.4 Engineered Coasts 27216.5 Anthropogenic Sediments 27416.6 The Urban Turn 27716.7 Infrastructure's Impacts on Landscapes 27816.8 Humans and Atmospheric Warming 27916.9 How Natural Are Natural Hazards and Disasters? 28117 Feedbacks with the Biosphere 28717.1 The Carbon Footprint of Natural Disasters 28717.1.1 Erosion and intermittent burial 28917.1.2 Organic carbon in river catchments 29117.1.3 Climatic disturbances 29317.2 Protective Functions 29617.2.1 Forest ecosystems 29617.2.2 Coastal ecosystems 29918 The Scope of Geomorphology in Dealing with Natural Risks and Disasters 30918.1 Motivation 31018.2 The Geomorphologist's Role 31218.3 The Disaster Risk Management Process 31318.3.1 Identify stakeholders 31318.3.2 Know and share responsibilities 31418.3.3 Understand that risk changes 31518.3.4 Analyse risk 31618.3.5 Communicate and deal with risk aversion 31718.3.6 Evaluate risks 31918.3.7 Share decision making 32118.4 The Future--Beyond Risk? 32218.4.1 Limitations of the risk approach 32318.4.2 Local and regional disaster impact reduction 32318.4.3 Relocation of assets 32518.4.4 A way forward? 32519 Conclusions 32919.1 Natural Disasters Have Immediate and Protracted Geomorphic Consequences 32919.2 Natural Disasters Motivate Predictive Geomorphology 32919.3 Natural Disasters Disturb Sediment Fluxes 33019.4 Geomorphology of Anthropocenic Disasters 331References 33220 Glossary 333

O autorze

Tim Davies is Professor in the School of Earth and Environment at University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Educated in Civil Engineering in UK in the 1970s, he taught in Agricultural Engineering and subsequently Natural Resources Engineering at Lincoln University, New Zealand before transferring to University of Canterbury in the present millennium to teach into Engineering Geology and Disaster Risk and Resilience. He has published a total of over 140 papers on a range of pure and applied geomorphology topics including river mechanics and management, debris-flow hazards and management, landslides, earthquakes and fault mechanics, rock mechanics and alluvial fans; natural hazard and disaster risk and resilience.Oliver Korup is Professor in the Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography and the Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Germany. Following an academic training in Germany and New Zealand, his research and teaching is now at the interface between geomorphology, natural hazards, and data science. He has worked on catastrophic erosion and disturbances in mountain belts, particularly on landslides, natural dams, river-channel changes, and glacial lake outburst floods.John J. Clague is Emeritus Professor at Simon Fraser University. He was educated at Occidental College, the University of California Berkeley, and the University of British Columbia. He worked as a Research Scientist with the Geological Survey of Canada from 1975 until 1998, and in Department of Earth Sciences at Simon Fraser University from 1998 until 2016. Clague is a Quaternary geologist with research specializations in glacial geology, geomorphology, natural hazards, and climate change, and has authored over 200 papers on these topics. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada and an Officer of the Order of Canada.