Futures We Are in

ISBN-13: 9781468484908 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 230 str.

F. Emery

Opis

After explicating the analytical framework I will proceed to develop scenarios as follows: I. General scenarios -maladaptive and adaptive. 2. The future for the Western group of societies. Within this will seek to identify the main changes in the natures of work, leisure, family organisation, education and life styles. 3. The future for the major Asian powers, China, Japan and India. 4. A world scenario centred about the first two scenarios but also aimed to locate within this pattern the most probable future for sets of the smaller societies and under-developed countries. The scenarios will be developed in that order, for good reasons. Sociological forecasting has to deal, in the first instance, with sets of societies that are closely interdependent, each with the other. A scenario for Western societies generally is required before one can hope to write one for the individual countries, e.g. France, Australia, because they are not evolving independently. The widespread upsurge of student revolts in 1967-68 well illustrates this interdependence. Some writers, like Stevens (1970) have taken the U.S.A. as the model of the future for the other smaller Western societies. There is some justifi cation for this as the U.S. has certainly been the 'leading part' in the West for some decades. However, there is danger in assuming that that will persist. A change in the near future in the problems that commonly confront Western societies may make the U.S. example 'depasee', old hat, if not down-right misleading."

Spis treści

1. From Evolving Systems to Evolving Environments.- 1.1.1. Type 1: Random, placid environments.- 1.1.2. Type 2: Clustered, placid environments.- 1.1.3. Type 3: Disturbed, reactive environments.- 1.1.4. Type 4: Turbulent environments.- 1.2. The May-Ashby model.- 1.3. Trends towards the emergence of turbulent environments.- 1.4. An historical view of the transition to turbulence.- 1.5. Bureaucratisation as a fifth major contributor to the transition to turbulence.- 2. Three Patterns of Maladaptive Response to Turbulence; Three Possible Scenarios.- 2.1. Superficiality: Marcuse’s scenario.- 2.2. Segmentation: the Orwellian scenario.- 2.3. Dissociation: Neumann’s scenario.- 3. The Doomsday Scenarios.- 4. Active Adaptation: The Emergence of Ideal Seeking Systems.- 4.1. Turbulence, values and ideals.- 4.2. A theoretical note on the parameters of choice (and hence decision making).- 4.2.1. Ideals and the parameters of choice.- 4.2.2. Choice, environment and ideals.- 4.3. The embodiment of ideals.- 4.3.1. Two basic organisational designs.- 4.3.2. Democratisation of work.- 4.3.3. The assembly line: its logic and our future.- 4.3.4. The historical significance of democratisation of work.- 4.3.5. Matrix organisations.- 4.3.6. Adaptive planning.- 5. The Most Probable Future for Western Societies.- 5.1. Probable futures in work.- 5.2. Education.- 5.3. The family.- 5.4. Life patterns: security, mobility and leisure.- 6. A Scenario for Asia and the West.- 6.1. China as the leading part in Asia.- 6.2. China and the leading role of the West.- 6.3. China and the U.S.S.R.- 6.4. China and the rest of Asia.- 6.5. Japan.- 6.6. ‘Maphilindo’.- 6.7. India.- 6.8. India 1976: a new path?.- 7. Notes for a World Scenario.- 7.1. The ‘Third World’.- 7.2. International co-operation about international concerns.- 8. Epilogue: Social Sciences and Social Futures.- 8.1. Social science roles.- 8.2. Examples of ethical problems.- 8.3. Conclusions.- Appendix I. Social Forecasting.- A. Methodological premises of social forecasting.- B. Forecasting social futures as a problem in reduction of complexity.- C. The problem of detecting emerging processes.