Foresight in Organizations: Methods and Tools

ISBN-13: 9781138692862 / Angielski / Miękka / 2016 / 248 str.

Patrick Van Der Duin

Opis

Foresight for Organizations will acquaint the reader with various foresight methods and tools, to show the reader how these methods are used, what the pitfalls are and how the methods relate to each other. This innovative volume offers the reader the ability to carry out a study of the future by him- or herself and apply the results in a decision-making strategy process.

The author addresses the following methods: scenarios, trend analysis, the Delphi method, quantitative trend extrapolation, technology assessment, backcasting and roadmapping; the most relevant and popular methods that also cover the range of approaches from predictive, via normative to explorative. Every chapter also contains references to additional literature about the methods being discussed.

This book is essential reading for researchers, academics and students in the areas of Community Development, Sociology of organizations, Change management, Social entrepreneurship, Sustainable development and participative planning.

Spis treści

1. Introduction  2. Developing Scenarios  3. Trend Analysis  4. The Delphi Method  5. Technological Forecasting  6. Technology Assessment  7. Backcasting  8. Roadmapping  9. Interviews  10. Workshops  11. The Future Recycled: Meta-analysis for foresight  12. The Acceleration Method  13. Creativity in Foresight. Seven exercises  14. Foresight and Creativity  15. Stakeholder Analysis  16. Causal Loop Diagramming  17. Beyond Visualization: Experiencing the future

O autorze

Patrick van der Duin is Assistant Professor at Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, the Netherlands, and Associate Professor of Futures Research and Trendwatching at Fontys Academy for Creative Industries, the Netherlands.